Labour will be biggest party in hung parliament, LabourList readers predict

Labour will emerge from the election the biggest party in a hung parliament, according to the latest predictions of LabourList readers. In our weekly survey this week, 57% said they expected Labour win more seats than the Conservatives but fall short of an overall majority. One in five readers, 20%, think a Labour majority is still the likeliest outcome when people go to the polls on May 7th.

Only 15% expect the Tories to come out on top: 13% see a Tory victory in a hung parliament, while only 2% believe Cameron can return to power with an overall majority.

According to May2015’s 5-day weighted polling average, Labour currently have a 1.4 point lead.

We also asked about the high-profile launch of a Labour campaign aimed at attracting women to vote in May. While there more women who did not vote in 2010 in men, this campaign has been overshadowed by the colour of the van that will be going around the country, with claims that using pink to promote a women’s campaign is patronising.

However, LabourList readers are still positive about the Woman to Woman campaign: 79% of respondents to the survey said they believe it is a good idea. Just 13% disagree and 8% said they did not know.

Finally, we asked about last week’s announcement by Ed Miliband that Labour will increase spending on education in real terms. This was largely overshadowed by the row over tax avoidance and Tory donors – he used the speech to reiterate his belief that Conservative Lord Fink had avoided paying tax.

While polling released this week shows that the public overwhelmingly support Miliband’s stance on tax avoidance, suggesting that capitalising on the row when he had the chance was a smart move, some have been disappointed that the education pledge did not get more coverage.

89% of people who took part in this week’s survey were in favour of the policy announcement, with only 6% saying they did not think it was a good policy announcement. Perhaps Miliband should revisit the topic before the election?

594 voted in this week’s LabourList survey. Thanks to everyone who took part.