SNP lead down to 10 points in latest poll

The latest Scottish poll ahead of May’s General Election shows a significant drop in the SNP’s lead over Scottish Labour – although the Nationalists are still a full 10 points ahead.

The TNS poll puts SNP on 41% and Scottish Labour on 31%. This is a quite different different from last week’s YouGov poll, which gave SNP a 21 point lead: they polled 47% to Scottish Labour’s 27%.

The figures for today’s poll are:

SNP 41%, Labour 31%, Conservatives 16%, Greens 6%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 2%

While trailing by 10 points three months before an election is no cause to celebrate, especially when it still shows Scottish Labour on course to have their number of seats halved, the failure of polls in Scotland to present a unified image will give some hope to the party. TNS found that only 64% are certain to vote (down from 85% in September’s referendum) and that 26% of adults were still undecided, leaving a huge question mark over what the final result in May will be.

The number of people yet to decide how to cast their vote could mean that the result on May 7th is heavily influenced by how the two parties perform on a constituency by constituency basis. The unlikely gains for the SNP indicated by Ashcroft’s polling will put greater scrutiny on candidates they have selected in seats they never expected to win. In some cases, this has already begun.

While TNS found that Jim Murphy had no net effect on Scottish Labour’s fortunes (8% said his leadership made them more likely to vote Labour, 8% said they were less likely), his proactive leadership style appears popular with the grassroots. If this translates into mobilising an activist base, Scottish Labour’s fortunes could begin to turn.