Tory arrogance shows they don’t understand the next election

The election really isn’t very far away, and every day it is clearer what the choice before the British public is going to be. Narrowly boiled down to a Labour Party they don’t really trust with the economy or a Tory Party they don’t really trust to be on their side. There will be other factors at play for sure. Other parties, other issues, other narratives. But by now, it is clear that this is where the playing field is. Under our first-past-the-post system, either Ed Miliband or David Cameron will be Prime Minister when the smoke clears. We will have a government led by Labour or by the Tories. And the polls – both the closeness of the top line figures and the consistency of the numbers and ranking of the issues based polling – show that the public remain divided and unenthused, but consistent in their disdain and their concerns.

Of the two parties, arguably it seems only the Labour Party understand their weakness with the public. I – of course – believe that Labour have the better plan for the public finance. I would have liked us to be bolder and more radical, but that our plans are the better option for the UK as a whole I have no doubt about. But the polls show that the public do, and so I understand the caution of our Treasury team. We know the territory we are being forced onto and the Tories endless parrotting of their phrase “long term economic plan” (I do wonder sometimes how many of them could go beyond that sentence to explain what this actually is – in terms the electorate would actually be comfortable with) shows they know it too. Or at least they know their half of the playing field. This is why I really like our latests Party Political Broadcast. It addresses the economy, but through a positive frame of “Labour on your side”. It shows we are trying to listen to the concerns of the electorate and address them. And it does so in a way which outlines our positive offer. Forced as we constantly are on the Tories chosen field we have offered an strong and confident riposte. It won’t be a game changer, but it is a good answer.

But when forced onto our territory, the Tories simply haven’t a clue. Not one.

David Cameron’s dismal performance this week at PMQs hammered home the message that Sir Malcolm Rifkind has been saying to the public all week. Tories are entitled and unrepentant in that entitlement. Far from being “on your side” they are protecting their own. For a man leading a Party who – we have to assume want to win more seats than they currently hold at the next election this was a remarkably arrogant own goal.

It is this arrogance that is the Tories greatest weakness. Labour know that we are neck and neck in the polls and are fighting for every vote, every scrap of advantage. Cameron is acting like the election is a foregone conclusion. A prize he has already won (perhaps at his Black and White Ball). His lack of answers on what was so obviously going to be the question that defined this political week showed once again his laziness in the face of challenge and the Tories unwillingness to consider – never mind address – their weaknesses on the eyes of the electorate.

I don’t think there is going to be one big game changer in this election but there will be many small moments that will add up to the narrative in votes heads by election day. We have an electorate who have not been enthused by either major  party and smaller parties will play their role in changing both the narrative and longer term the rules of the game. But we also have an electorate who seem to understand the choice they have before them. The Party that best convinces them they have listened to their concerns may well the Party that edges it.

This week has exposed the weakness in the Tory electoral strategy. Can they turn it around. Only if they start listening. But they are in broadcast mode.  They are like that bore at a party waiting only for gaps in the conversation where they can repeat their favourite anecdote (you know, the one you’ve heard before about the long term economic plan). That they are behaving this arrogantly when the election is so tight is astonishing. And very foolish. With all that money in their coffers, surely they could pay for better electoral advice than this? But then they arrogantly assume they don’t have to.