Ground campaigns begin to shore up leads in marginals

The ground campaigns of the main two parties are beginning to shore up their leads in marginal constituencies, according to latest polling. The latest set of Ashcroft research in Con-Lab marginals shows that in seats where one of the parties held a lead last year, they are more likely to have improved their standing now.

Ashcroft carried out polling in 10 Tory seats where Labour are the challengers, all of which he has already polled within the last year. Of the seats, Labour look on course to gain four, the Tories look on course to hold four, and one, Pudsey, is currently a dead heat. There is one seat, Harrow East, that shows a different party leading from the last time it was polled – while the Tories had a 3 point lead there in December, Labour’s Uma Kumaran now leads by 4.

That in most places the leads a party has are more likely to increase than decrease at this point shows the importance of the ground campaigns: once Labour and the Conservatives have got a foothold in a constituency, they have increased the resources and energy being put into it.

The seats polled are (the ones in bold are where Labour are currently on course to gain): Blackpool North & Cleveleys, Gloucester, Harrow East, Hove, Kingswood, Loughborough, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Pendle, Pudsey, and Stockton South.

The main table for the polling can be seen here (via Lord Ashcroft Polls – click to enlarge):

In these seats, there does not seem to be a pattern of inverse correlation between the popularity of UKIP and the Tories, or between the Green Party and Labour. In none of the seats are the Lib Dems on course for a third-placed finish, and in only one, Pudsey, are the Green Party looking likely to finish as high as fourth place.