Three polls today show shift in Labour’s favour as Tory campaign stalls

Update: Two more polls this evening have made the pattern as unclear as before:

YouGov/Sun – CON 35 (+1) LAB 34 (-1) LD 8 (=) UKIP 12 (-1) GRN 4 (-1)
Comres/Mail – Con 34% (-2) Lab 33% (+1) Lib Dem 12% (+3) UKIP 12% (NC)

So 4/5 polls show a movement towards Labour, but 2/5 polls show Tory leaders.

Clear as muck – as you were…

Three opinion polls have been released so far today, all showing a shift toward Labour – suggesting that there has been a shift towards the party during this week.

There was a TNS poll around lunchtime that gave Labour a lead of three points. The fieldwork was carried out between the 2nd and 7th of April.

Labour – 33% (+1) Conservatives – 30% (-3) UKIP – 19% (+3) Lib Dems – 8% (-) Green – 4% (-1)

A Panelbase poll released a few hours later puts Labour six points ahead of the Tories, putting the party on its highest voteshare for a while. With the most dramatic shift, this poll is the likeliest outlier. However, the Tories’ standing is similar to their results in the two other polls.

Labour – 37% (+4) Conservatives – 31% (-2) UKIP – 16% (-1) Lib Dems – 8% (+1)

The third poll, by Survation, shows Labour ahead by four points.

Labour – 35% (+2) Conservatives – 31% (-1) UKIP – 15% (-3) Lib Dems – 9% (no change) GRN – 4% (+2)

The fluctuations in Labour’s support between the different pollsters make it slightly more difficult to assess quite how big the lead is (although May2015’s updated poll of polls puts it at three points). The latest offering from YouGov, which was released late last night, also sees Labour ahead, but by a smaller margin of one point, with 35% 0f the vote.

The fact that several polls have found this shift indicates that Labour have indeed moved into a small lead over the past week.

Survation’s research also finds that Miliband’s personal ratings have moved ahead of Cameron’s for the first time, and that 59% of people support Labour’s plans to abolish the non-dom status, while only 16% oppose.

Many have claimed that there would be a shift in Cameron’s favour during the short campaign if the polls remained close – and a Tory minister last month said that “panic will set in” within the party if the Tories were not ahead by early April:

“Lynton Crosby keeps saying the polls will pick up and that we need to hold our nerve. We have already been waiting quite a while and you can be pretty sure panic will set in if there isn’t significant movement early in April. But people are worried we have got the whole tone a bit wrong.”

It’s April 9th and the only movement so far is away from the Conservatives – is panic setting in yet in CCHQ?