Final Ashcroft marginals poll shows Labour and Tories still neck and neck in key marginals

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Lord Ashcroft has published his final marginal seat polling today, bringing to a close a mammoth exercise in publicly available constituency level polling on a scale that has never before been attempted in British politics. Thanks to Ashcroft (assuming his polling is accurate of course) we have a far clearer snapshot of what is happening in those key battlegrounds than we’d have by looking at national polls alone.

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The key message from these final constituencies is the same as on MondayLabour marginally ahead in a few seats, marginally behind in a few others. Labour has small leads in Norwich North, Peterborough and Wirral West, and the Tories have small leads in Pudsey, Stourbridge and a larger lead in Croydon Central. Battersea – where Labour’s Will Martindale has run a strong campaign backed by the local and national party – has a 12 point Tory lead. That looks like a long shot now (click to enlarge):

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Perhaps the most interesting seat in this polling though is the only Labour held seat polled. Only a few weeks ago we were (quite understandably) talking about a cataclysm in Scotland, with Murphy 9 points behind the SNP in his own seat. Today’s poll suggests that the gap is now just 3 points, with a swing back towards the Scottish Labour leader meaning the seat is still in play. There will be a sigh of relief in Scottish Labour over that.

And what about the all important ground game? Again – Labour has a significant lead on voter contact levels in every seat where the party is trying to win or hold the seat. With Miliband calling on activists to make a million contacts in this final week, these numbers are only going to go up as the GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operation kicks into gear:

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In those seats where Labour is just ahead or just behind, that difference this week and on election day could be the difference

 

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