Five lessons for 2020

I joined our party four and a half years ago, having realised that Labour alone can deliver a government that marries social justice with economic stability, and aspiration with equality of opportunity.   It was unquestionably one of the best decisions I have ever made.   From day one, I was welcomed with open arms, listened to and given opportunities to contribute to our movement.  In that same spirit, I believe it is vital that every member of the Labour family is given the chance to make their voice heard in the weeks and months to come.   I am convinced that only through a candid, open and comprehensive debate we can learn the right lessons from the crushing result of last week and set ourselves on a trajectory to form a government in 2020.

My ‘five lessons’ pose as many questions as they do answers, but at this very early stage of our rebuilding project, I hope they can play a small part in stimulating the debate that our party needs and deserves.

1. Less outrage, more optimism

The bedroom tax, an explosion in demand for food banks and a sustained fall in living standards.  Millions shared our outrage at the record of the last government, but outrage didn’t translate into votes.   Outrage alone will never be enough.   Our job is not to convince the public that the Conservatives are heartless or incompetent, they will form their own judgement on this government.  Our job is to win hearts and minds in all parts of our country, by focusing on offering an optimistic Labour alternative.

2. Play the politics of fear and there is only one winner

The idea of a “Labour / SNP coalition of chaos” posited by the Conservatives was the most prominent and effective negative message of the election.   Let’s be honest, it wasn’t the only negative message of the campaign, we had our fair share too.  Provocative posters on the NHS and a warning in the last few days that, “child benefit was on the ballot paper”.   The Conservatives excel at the politics of fear and when campaigns go negative, there is only one winner.  We can and must do better.

3. We can’t play it safe and reach beyond our base

“You can’t trust the Tories with the NHS”.  I have a hunch that one soundbite has been applauded more than any other at Labour party conferences and meetings over the last decade.  The NHS is Labour’s proudest achievement and always an important issue, but elevating the NHS above everything else in our campaign was defensive and misguided – no matter what the focus groups told us.  Labour as the party of the NHS is already ‘priced in’ by the voters, in the same vein as the Conservatives being the party of tax cuts.   I have no doubt this energised our core supporters (in the same way that raising the tax threshold to £50,000 was lapped up by lifelong Conservatives) but it was clearly not the route to moving undecided, or 2010 Conservative voters.

4. The ‘retail offer’ is secondary to the big picture

Ever since Ed used his 2013 conference speech to pledge a freeze in energy prices, much has been written about the importance of the ‘retail offer’ in British politics.   Getting individual policies right will always be profoundly important, but last Thursday should remind us all that many voters make their judgement on the ‘big picture’.   Pollsters said that many of our individual policies were very popular (the abolition of non dom status being a case in point), but they did nothing to combat the instinctive feel of the electorate that the Conservatives were more trustworthy on the economy; an advantage clinically driven home with their relentless, simple messaging.   

5. We can only win in 2020 by converting Conservatives

Hands up, I was one of the people who argued that winning back 2010 Lib Dems could be crucial to a Labour victory in 2015.  I was wrong.   The truth is that by focusing too much on an attempt to reunite the centre-left, we didn’t do enough to appeal to 2010 Conservative voters.    In the many marginal seats we must win in 2020, the joint Labour / Conservative share of the vote is 80% or more.   We can’t win these seats back by ‘squeezing the left’, even if that’s what we wanted to do, the votes simply are not there.   Nobody who voted Conservative last Thursday did so because Labour was insufficiently left wing.  Moving left would take our party straight into an electoral cul-de-sac.   Once again, the opportunity for renewal lies squarely in the centre of British politics.