The speech Ed Miliband could make on Friday morning

For days the Tories and the right-wing press have been questioning the legitimacy of Labour coming second but still taking power. Never mind that it’s a tacit admission of defeat by David Cameron, the legitimacy argument matters. While arithmetic will be the most important factor in deciding what happens next, the way the party leaders steer the public debate will make a difference. So what should Ed say on 8th of May? Here’s the imagined speech I think Miliband could make on Friday, assuming Labour is not the largest party but is within reach of power…

Last night’s results were inconclusive. But the verdict on David Cameron’s government was not.

Yesterday the Conservatives went backwards, losing hundreds of thousands of votes and dozens of seats to Labour. Backwards even from their 2010 result, when they did not receive sufficient support to govern alone.

Mr Cameron should take stock of the people’s verdict and consider now whether he has the public mandate or the support of the House of Commons to continue in office.

I do not pretend that Labour alone has won this election. And in the next few days I will make no presumptions.

But across the four nations of the United Kingdom, people have elected MPs from parties that said, clearly and directly, that they would vote against a Conservative-led government, and support an administration led by me.

If those parties confirm that this remains their intention, I believe that the Prime Minister will conclude that he cannot assemble sufficient support to govern and will resign.

As the incumbent, Mr Cameron has the right to consider his options from Downing Street. The question he must answer is whether he can command the support of the House of Commons. It may become obvious that he cannot, but I will bear him no ill will if he wishes to test the proposition, in a vote of confidence on a Conservative Queen’s Speech.

Labour itself has had a mixed night – I am incredibly proud of the huge gains we have made in England. We have shown that Labour is the standard bearer for progressive values in every corner of the strong, diverse nation that is England today.

And I’m proud too of our results in Wales.

In Scotland, however, we have suffered defeat. I am deeply saddened by the result because I believe that the only way to build a fairer United Kingdom is by each nation and region in these islands standing together.

But I respect the choice that people in Scotland have made and I offer my congratulations to the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP’s victory in Scotland is the legitimate outcome of the democratic process and the voice of Scots must not be excluded from decisions in the coming days, about who should form a government for the whole United Kingdom.

To ignore the votes Scots have cast would only increase the threat of separation. So I say this to the people of Scotland and to their elected representatives: I will not lead a government based on a deal with a party that wishes to break-up the country I love. But I will listen to you and treat you the respect you have earned.

And if you vote for Labour proposals that I put before the House of Commons – in the interests of the Scottish people – I will be honoured to walk through the voting lobbies alongside you.

My aim is to secure a stable government with the strongest possible support from across the whole country. So today I want to open my door to discussions with the Liberal Democrats.

Together Labour and the Liberal Democrats have more votes and seats than the Conservatives, both in the United Kingdom as a whole and in England and Wales. I believe the national interest would be better served by an alliance between the two parties, rather than continual horse-trading – bill-by-bill and vote-by-vote.

Before negotiations begin I don’t want to rule out any options for the shape of an eventual agreement. The outcome could be a coalition government; or it might be a Labour minority administration, with the Liberal Democrats providing support from outside government.

I am confident that the two parties will find that we share common ground in many areas. And I will be open to adding Liberal Democrat priorities to my programme, in exchange for the party’s support.

But I will say this. I will not break my promise to present a Queen’s Speech based on Labour’s manifesto. I will not abandon the essential promises I have made to the British people in exchange for power.

I know there are some who will be surprised and perhaps disappointed that their next Prime Minister could be the leader of a party which does not have the most MPs.

It is the consequence of a deadlocked election contest, the success of smaller parties and the legitimate expectation that people in every part of the United Kingdom should have a voice in deciding who governs. We have entered a period of multi-party politics, in which the expressed intentions of groups of parties matter as much as the size of one.

Remember, four years ago, the British public was given the opportunity to change our voting system and decided not to, by a large majority. Now Labour stands on the brink of office, as a consequence of that electoral system.  I have played fairly by rules which were not of my making.

But after the dust has settled, I would be happy to debate whether our current electoral system is right for the future. I have already promised a Constitutional Convention to consider how to decentralise power in England, as well as Scotland and Wales. And I will introduce an elected House of Lords, based on the voting preference of every nation and region.

If the other parties wish it, I would be prepared to discuss the future of our voting system as part of the same process.

Mr Cameron is entitled to take his time, and all the parties will want to consider their options and talk with each other. But, today, I believe we are on the brink of a new government.

The people of Britain have voted against a continuation of Conservative rule – and for Labour and other parties committed to change.

So I stand ready to assume office, to form a stable, competent and compassionate government. A government that will fulfil the promises Labour has made at this election – that will serve people in every nation and region, from every walk of life – in the national interest.