To win in 2020, we need to beat UKIP in the south as well as the north

We know that we’ve got our work cut out to win a Labour majority government in 2020. Without a major recovery in Scotland we’ll need to win around 100 additional seats in England and Wales in less than 5 years’ time on an average swing of around 10%.

We must take almost all these constituencies from the Conservatives because there are next to no Lib Dem seats left to squeeze. And, as I’ve set out before, we can’t tackle the Tories in these must-win seats without taking on UKIP too. That doesn’t mean parroting UKIP politics, but it does mean understanding how we win back the often working class voters who vote for them.

This is true in the South just as in the North.

We had 18 target seats for 2015 in the South East and South West, 16 of which were Conservative-held. We won only one – Hove. Even this dreadful result masks the extent of the problem, as we lost so much ground in some of these seats that we thought we were set to win.

UKIP were a part of that failure. They quadrupled their share of the vote in these seats to 12%, and picked up over 100 000 votes. In half of these constituencies the UKIP vote was bigger than the Tory majority.

And in the two seats in the South that we lost to the Tories – Southampton Itchen and Plymouth Moor View – UKIP gained 13.4% and 21.5% of the vote.

Looking forward to 2020 we will need to be more ambitious in the South, not less. There are now 21 Tory-held seats that we can win on a swing of less than 10% – seats which we may well need to win to get back into government. Not just in Brighton, Plymouth and Southampton but in Milton Keynes, Reading, Thanet South and Camborne and Redruth too.

Our big political battle is, as it’s always been, with the Conservatives. But to beat the Tories we also have to see off UKIP.

In these would-be 2020 targets in the South UKIP chalked up an average vote share of over 14% and received almost 150 000 votes.

Neither the analysis nor the answer is straightforward and there’s still a good deal of work to do, including talking to candidates and local parties – both those who won and those who didn’t – as part of the Party’s ‘lessons’ review.

But we can start with what we do know. Populist right parties like UKIP are doing well right across Europe in the wake of the prolonged downturn following the global financial crisis. Local economic change, lack of good jobs and a sense of being ‘left behind’ are pushing voters towards UKIP, especially in former industrial areas on the south coast and Thames Estuary or in seaside resort towns. So we need a strong and convincing economic vision for these voters.

And because the roots of UKIP support are also cultural, with a pessimism about the future and cynicism about politics, a big part of the challenge will to renew the belief that Labour is on their side and can speak for people across the South. Policy, leadership and tone at a national level will matter, but part of the imperative is to re-build our community base – giving our local parties, candidates and councillors the support they need to grow.

If we’re serious about beating Tories in seats across the South in 2020, we can make a start now in getting to grips with UKIP.

John Healey is the MP for Wentworth and Dearne