The Oldham West by-election – what did we learn?

I stayed up following the surprisingly straightforward Oldham West and Royton by-election last night for our traditional liveblog, the result of which you can read about here. Plenty of you read our ‘what to expect’ piece yesterday, so now, here’s what we learned:

Strength of candidate

With an 11,000 majority, it can’t be claimed that Jim McMahon is solely responsible for last night’s victory, but his candidacy did play a very big role. The leader of the local council, many visiting Labour councillors were struck by his appeal on the doorstep. People had actually heard of him, and they liked him.

A good campaign

The Labour by-election machine kicked into force. Activists came from all over the country, and from all wings of the party, and were met by some of the best organisers in the business. Andrew Gwynne, the MP charged with running the campaign, will return to Parliament with his reputation enhanced at having run a tight ship.

UKIP are no SNP

UKIP, by contrast, do not seem to know how to run an effective ground campaign. Their embrace, too, of the toxicity of their brand does nothing to diminish it. There remains an overreliance on the appeal of Nigel Farage, who remains at best a divisive figure.

They can keep Labour on our toes, they can give us occasional scares, such as Heywood and Middleton, but until they start assessing their own problems they will not have any sort of meaningful breakthrough in Labour heartlands.

Corbyn appeal

It was deemed his first electoral test. Jeremy Corbyn may not have had much appeal to white working class voters in Oldham – his level of popularity was why Labour insiders were so nervy, why he wasn’t featured on literature, and probably played a role in him shelving a visit last Friday – but it appears he did not act as a deterrent, despite UKIP’s confidence.

His appeal in Asian areas of town may also have been overlooked. His strong opposition to airstrikes in Syria, while sowing division in Westminster, could have played well here over the past week.

Expectations

It’s been noted that the result last night bears a cosmetic similarity to the Barnsley Central by-election of 2011. On that occasion, though, Labour’s voteshare increased by even more, but little was made of it, coming after a similar result in Oldham East.

But on this occasion, expectations were low, and a welcome rise in Labour’s standing has given the party a welcome boost.

In part, we can thank UKIP’s terrible expectation management for that; their electoral strategy seems to be based on ramping up expectations and hoping reality follows suit. It is interesting to note too, though, that Labour insiders were also privately concerned by how close it could be.

NEC

Finally, as a council representative, Jim McMahon will lose his place on the NEC. He will be replaced by the highest up the ballot last time who was not elected – meaning Ann Lucas, leader of Coventry Council, will step in until the new elections next year.