LabourList readers set elections result expectations

Labour activists have spent weeks – and in some cases months – knocking on doors to speak to voters. Now they have a chance to say how they think it’s going. LabourList readers have set out how they expect the party to do in today’s English council, London, Welsh and Scottish elections.

Remember to keep an eye on our liveblog to see how the expectations compare to results as they come in.

We asked our readers to say how many seats they expect Labour to win in Wales and Scotland, what the change in seats will be in the English councils up for election, and whether Sadiq Khan will enter City Hall tomorrow. Here’s what they said:

London Mayor

Let’s start with the good news: More than nine out of 10 readers who took part in this week’s survey think Sadiq Khan will become London Mayor.

Polls have consistently shown Sadiq ahead for months, with the last round of polling keeping him in a double-digit lead over Zac Goldsmith.

91 per cent said they think Sadiq Khan will overcome Tory Zac Goldsmith’s much-criticised campaign, with just four per cent predicting four more years of a Tory mayor. Five per cent said they did not know.

Results expected: Friday evening.

London Assembly

Carrying on the optimistic vein, readers reckon Khan’s success will be replicated in the London Assembly. Ken Livingstone lost to Boris in 2012 despite Labour’s best ever showing in the Assembly, returning 12 AMs to 25 strong chamber for the first time – one short of an overall majority.

More than a third of readers believe Labour will cement that power, or improve upon it, with 37 per cent saying the party will have 12 or more AMs once the votes are counted.

11 per cent reckon Labour will have 11 AMs, 26 per cent believe it will be 10, 15 think the party will hold onto nine, and just eight per cent think Labour will return to our 2008 total of eight seats. Only four per cent think Labour will only hang onto to seven or fewer in the capital – despite seven AMs being what the party won on the only occasion it won the mayoralty in 2004.

Results expected: Friday afternoon.

English councils

Around 125 councils across England were being contested today, although many did not see all of their seats up for election. In total 2,743 council seats were up for grabs.

Most academic forecasts suggest Labour will lose somewhere between 120 and 200 seats in total – although Jeremy Corbyn caused confusion this week when he said that the party “will not” lose any. This was later clarified by a spokesperson, who said that the party were hoping not to lose seats.

LabourList readers seem tentatively optimistic, however. 45 per cent of those who took part in the survey said they expect Labour to gain on its current council seats total tonight, while 55 per cent expect to go backwards.

The favoured outcome is that Labour will have moderate success, with 18 per cent predict the party winning up to 49 seats. 11 per cent see between 50 and 99 gains likely, seven per cent up to 150 gains, four per cent up to 200 – and five per cent believe Labour will finish with over 200 gains, the kind of result that could see us on course for a 2020 victory.

14 per cent think that losses of between 100 and 149 are to be expected tonight, while 12 per cent predict losses of between 150 and 199. Eight per cent think it could be worse than that, saying Labour’s tally will be more than 200 worse off. Ten per cent think the tally will be down up to 49, and 11 per cent say Labour will lose between 50 and 99.

Results expected: 80 councils to declare overnight on Friday, from around 12.30. A further 50 from late morning Friday, and the remaining five on Saturday afternoon.

Welsh Assembly

Welsh Labour currently holds 30 of the 60 seats in the Senedd, the most it has had in 17 years of consecutive power. Polls suggest a significant loss of support, but still a commanding lead, while forecasts seems to predict a result of around 28 AMs – although party sources have been dampening expectations.

LabourList readers are fairly spread on their expectations. 29 per cent think Welsh Labour will return 26 or 27 AMs, while 22 per cent think it will be 28 or 29, and 20 per cent reckon it will be 30 or more.

Some are more pessimistic. 19 per cent say 24 or 25, which would not be a good night for Labour, but which is certainly a possibility – and 11 per cent predict 23 or fewer AMs. That would be very bad indeed.

Results expected: Overnight on Thursday.

Scottish Parliament

Expectations are low in Scotland, and rightly so. The SNP are going to sweep the board, and should retain their unlikely majority with ease. After last May’s catastrophe for Scottish Labour, there is no result so bad it would surprise LabourList readers.

29 per cent plumped for the most pessimistic Holyrood result, where Labour hold onto just 14 or fewer MSPs. 24 per cent predict 15 to 19 MSPs, and another 24 per cent say 20 to 25 – which is around the level most forecasts put the likely total. 13 per cent say 25 to 29 MSPs, and five per cent reckon between 30 and 35.

A further five per cent of LabourList readers have shown themselves to be happy-go-lucky sorts, predicting a return of 35 or more MSPs for Scottish Labour. Only time will tell.

Results expected: Overnight on Thursday.