Inside the bellwether town which spells whether it will be a good night for Labour

After spending time on Labour’s campaign trail in Exeter, I visited the very marginal Plymouth Sutton and Devonport this week. This is, however, a constituency where Labour is looking to make gains. Conservative incumbent Oliver Colvile faces a challenge to maintain his 523 vote majority against Labour’s Luke Pollard. If this is to be a good election for Labour, this seat should be turning red.

Plymouth, above, is an electoral bellwether. Labour lost Plymouth Sutton and Devonport to the Conservatives in 2010 by 1,149 votes, before cutting this majority by two-thirds two years ago, to come with touching distance of reclaiming it – adding 3,500 votes against the national trend.

Meanwhile, despite holding the other Plymouth seat of Moor View in 2010, the last election saw the government actually overturn a 1,588 majority to win the seat from Labour with 1,026 votes to spare. Just to underline the point of fine margins, the Conservatives won one seat on the city council from Labour in 2016 leaving both parties tied on 27 seats – the Tory administration relied on support from UKIP to stay in office. The city couldn’t be more of a knife edge in 2017.

Although the national polling is worse for Labour then in 2015, if we are to make gains anywhere this time round, it could be in Plymouth. Demographic changes are going in Labour’s favour. The constituency also has some of the largest health inequalities in the country, with life expectancy varying by ten years in different wards within it. There are also tens of thousands of students at the city’s three universities. Of course, one of the first rules of politics is that non-voters don’t vote. However, in the aftermath of the political earthquake that was last summer’s EU referendum, those rules don’t seem quite as certain as they once did. Plymouth Labour is reporting huge support from those aged under 25.

A dedicated volunteer base has uncovered strong support for Labour in the Sutton and Devonport constituency. Many who have not voted before are interested in Labour’s manifesto and say they are now going to vote Labour. Coming within a whisker of victory in 2015 has given Luke Pollard and his team a score to settle.

Plymouth is a garrison town, home to the nation’s largest naval base and the Royal Marines. Trident is a big issue on the doors with everyone knowing someone who works in the dockyard or the forces. The Conservatives are focusing on Trident – a policy where there’s actually no difference between the two parties’ manifestos – diverting attention from cuts to the Royal Navy and Royal Marines. Mothballed warships and bases facing the axe are reminders that defence is a live issue in this election here and one where Labour’s message has more resonance than the Tory focus on cuts if we can get out message across.

Pollard is typically focused: “It is genuinely neck and neck here,” he said.

“Plymouth Labour is united and focused on kicking out the Tories. Whatever happens nationally, Plymouth can be won by Labour.” Given the odds stacked against Labour as this election, the party will need to shatter past certainties to make gains, and if Labour can do it anywhere it could be here. This might be one seat worth staying up for until the expected 4am declaration.

Returning from the West Country, I went back to my own constituency of Richmond Park, where Labour is seeking to make inroads against newly elected Lib Dem Sarah Olney, who ejected Zac Goldsmith. A decent performance here on June 8 will lay the groundwork for the council elections in May 2018. A strong performance from Labour’s Sachin Patel here in 2015 increased Labour’s vote from 2,979 to 7,296, although the result here in last year’s by-election was obviously disappointing. Although Christian Wolmar worked tirelessly on the campaign trail and bettered both Olney and Goldsmith in the hustings, the by-election was fought on Brexit and Labour got squeezed from both sides.

With local people returning to the polling stations only six months later, Goldsmith’s prospects of re-taking the seat do not seem to have improved. Speaking to local people, many Remain voters were angered with Zac for backing Brexit and appalled by his dog-whistle mayoral campaign.

The local Conservative Association voted with their hearts over their heads in re-selection Zac, who remains popular amongst local Tory members, when choosing a new, Europhile candidates might have paid dividends. Having won in 2015 as a Conservative, fought and lost in 2016 as an independent (standing against Heathrow expansion), Zac is now back again as a Conservative, fighting on a manifesto committed to Heathrow expansion. This flip-floppary is unlikely to have strengthened his position in the eyes of an already sceptical community. Therefore, despite Olney’s short-comings as a candidate, I wouldn’t expect this to be a Con gain.

Edward Jones is a Labour activist and political consultant who lives in London.