Labour gains could deprive Tories of overall majority, according to new study

Civil servants are being told to prepare for a hung parliament as a new projection suggests that the Tories could finish the election 11 seats short of an overall majority.

The Conservatives would be the largest party in the Times/YouGov model, taking 42 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 38 per cent. This would equate to 305 seats for Theresa May’s party, and 268 for Labour. Jeremy Corbyn’s party currently has 231 seats in Westminster.

The Lib Dems are projected to take 13 seats, up from nine, and the SNP 42, down from the 56 elected last time around.

Several media reports today suggested that Whitehall is preparing for the possibility of a hung parliament.

In Scotland, Labour is getting closer to the Tories, after trailing in as the third largest party in last year’s Holyrood elections.

The YouGov survey for The Times suggests that the SNP would be the largest party in Scotland, taking 41 per cent of the vote, a decrease of nine points on 2015. The Tories would come second on 26 per cent, and Labour a close third, 25 per cent. The Lib Dems are projected to come a distant fourth, with six per cent.

However, the SNP would lose ten seats according to the How Scotland Votes model by Weber Shandwick, to hold 46 seats. The Tories would have seven seats, gaining six, Labour three, gaining two, and the Lib Dems also three, up two.

Weber Shandwick predict East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh North and Leith as Labour gains from the nationalists.

The Lib Dems are expected to hold on to Orkney and Shetland, and gain Edinburgh West and East Dunbartonshire. The model predicts that SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson’s Moray seat will be lost to the Tories.