Polling chief: Labour can capitalise as Tory trust on the economy plunges

Survation will publish new polling on behalf of LabourList tomorrow at Labour conference. The research will take a detailed look at public perception of political parties and in particular their ratings on key issues relevant to voter behaviour.

We have repeated polling of the battery of issues which was done for LabourList in September 2016 – enabling us to assess the direction of travel of public attitudes over the last year.

Then the Conservatives – as is conventionally the case – scored their highest rating  for “managing the economy overall”, “keeping taxes low” and “creating the conditions for stronger economic growth”.

At the time of last year’s poll, Survation’s voting intention was 39/29 for the Tories over Labour. The government was rated 14 points higher on “managing the economy overall” than their party voting intention percentage, meaning voters of other parties were rating the government as very good or good.

This year’s polling however indicates a notable deterioration public perception on these key issues.

In terms of “Managing the economy overall” the public rates the Conservative government at -10, from +13 a year ago, with only 35 per cent rating the government “very good” or “good”, a change of – 23 points on what is always a core Conservative brand strength.

The accompanying voting intention for this polling, from September 21 this year, has the Conservative party on 40 per cent nationally – much the same as the 2016 polling.

The Brexit elephant in the room?

As to what is behind this marked change in attitudes, it is always problematic to assign a particular cause to changes in public opinion. It would be remiss however to not mention Survation’s polling this weekend on public attitudes to Brexit negotiations after Theresa May’s speech in Florence on Friday.

Notwithstanding the government’s intentions about reaching a mutually beneficial deal with the EU, 56 per cent of those questioned told Survation they did not believe exit negotiations would be completed by March 2019 compared to only 25 per cent saying they believed they would.  

Some 51 per cent of the public told us in polling conducted on Friday and Saturday that they “did not trust” the prime minister to deliver a “good Brexit deal for Britain” vs 34 per cent who said they did. And asked to consider the economy, only 38 per cent in our polling believe Brexit will be “good for Britain”.

Full results of our updated polling for LabourList will be made available and form part of the discussion at Survation and Labour List’s panel event on Monday at Labour conference – full details below.

Are Labour on course for an overall majority? Exclusive election briefing from Survation. Monday, 11am-12pm, GB1 Terrace, The Grand Hotel (secure zone).

Damian Lyons Lowe is chief executive of Survation. Joining him in this session will be Sam Tarry, national political officer of the TSSA and campaign director for Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership campaign, and Rhea Wolfson, NEC member, campaigner and Livingston candidate at the general election.

To secure a place at please email [email protected]