Corbyn set to win more seats at next general election as Tories slip back

Jeremy Corbyn would make further gains if a general election was held immediately but would still end up with slightly fewer Commons seats than Theresa May, according to a new prediction.

The Electoral Calculus study says Labour would win 281 seats, up 19, and the Tories 295, down 23 from last June.

“The new year has started relatively well for the Conservatives with the pollsters, on average, showing the two major parties virtually neck and neck. That has seen the elimination of Labour’s lead over the Conservatives of around two per cent,” said Electoral Calculus.

The projection, based on surveys carried out by the major pollsters in January, would deprive the Tories of an overall majority even if they brokered another deal with the Democratic Unionist Party.

Electoral Calculus seats projection (and actual result in 2017)

Conservatives: 295 (318)

Labour: 281 (262)

SNP: 37 (35)

Northern Irish parties: 18 (18)

Lib Dems: 14 (12)

Plaid Cymru: 4 (4)

Greens: 1 (1)

UKIP: 0 (0)