Amber Rudd has resigned. Is Theresa May next?

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Amber Rudd has resigned. Is Theresa May next?

Last week, Rudd told the home affairs select committee deportation targets didn’t exist. They pointed out evidence to the contrary, and the Guardian later revealed a leaked memo sent to Rudd that referred directly to such targets. The Tory line is that Rudd “inadvertently misled” MPs. But a letter from Rudd to May about increasing deportations by 10 per cent confirms that both knowingly implemented targets.

Rudd had to resign, but we know the Prime Minister didn’t want her to go. As well as being one of her key allies, the Home Secretary was crucial to the Remain-Leave balance in the cabinet as well as the Great Offices of State gender balance. It took five apologies and clarifications in a week for May to finally accept her resignation.

The question now is how Labour reacts to this further destabilised Tory government. Attacking the “hostile environment” policy is an option – fortunately we have a leader and Shadow Home Secretary with voting records allowing them to choose this course without appearing insincere. But there’s a couple of snags.

First, although the British public supports the Windrush generation and shares our outrage over the way fellow Brits have been treated, it overwhelmingly supports the hostile environment strategy. Second, as former LabourList editor Mark Ferguson pointed out on Twitter this morning (oh hi Mark), Amber Rudd went for the cover-up (misleading MPs over targets) not the crime (the policy itself). This is so often the case in politics, as it was for Priti Patel and Damian Green last year – though this time what’s been lied about is the devastating direction of an entire department.

Diane Abbott gave an interesting interview on Good Morning Britain today. The Shadow Home Secretary is taking a more nuanced approach than many will expect given her consistent opposition to the Immigration Act 2014 and May’s immigration policy more generally. Asked whether targets should exist, Abbott said the problem was the type of targets, in that they were too general. She replied that there should instead be more specific targets for removing illegal immigrants – those who are in prison awaiting deportation, for instance.

Abbott’s response to the resignation makes clear the next steps. Rudd was due to give a statement in the Commons today to address “legitimate questions” over her home affairs select committee answers. Labour will try to force the PM herself to come before the Commons and explain whether she was aware Rudd was misleading parliament over targets. It seems the most important piece of evidence is Rudd’s letter to May.

One thing is certain: the Tories’ troubles aren’t over. In the same week as local elections, there are likely to be further government defeats in the House of Lords today and the Brexit ‘war cabinet’ meeting on customs union options (as well as any Brexit vote in the Commons) has just become even trickier. Theresa May’s government could collapse at any time.

Sienna @siennamarla

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