Local Elections 2018: Morning update

Good morning. We’re two-thirds of the way through the results of 2018’s local elections.

Labour has held on to 46 councils and 1,410 Labour councillors have been elected so far – up 23 seats with a net loss of one council. The key facts are as follows: Tories lost control of Trafford. Labour won Plymouth. Labour made progress in Portsmouth. Labour did well in Westminster and Wandsworth, but hasn’t taken control of any more councils in London. The Tories have taken back control of Barnet. UKIP have collapsed… and the Lib Dem fight back has actually happened.

The Tories are eager to overstate how well they’ve done in this round of local elections. Although Barnet is a significant disappointment, there is a swing to Labour in London and the party’s performance in the capital would be considered impressive had the run-up to polling day been different. Unfortunately, expectations were not managed effectively – in fact, they spiralled out of control. This has allowed commentators to conclude that Labour’s performance has come as something of a failure.

Yet in Wandsworth, Labour got its best election results in 30 years. Last week I warned that “the Tories may successfully spin the results as a disappointment for Labour when literally every council in London fails to turn red”. How could Labour set the bar so high? As I’ve said before, there are a couple of interesting reasons. Last year, a Corbynsceptic party HQ was accused of lacking ambition in choosing its target seats. Plus, optimism helps to boost activists on the doorstep – and Labour did run an impressive campaign on the ground in many key areas.

The pattern we’ve seen tonight is essentially a further entrenchment of the 2017 general election results. Jeremy Corbyn is seen to have more appeal in the cities; his party has fallen back in many Leave-voting areas outside London, some of which are traditional Labour heartlands. Theresa May’s Tories are struggling in metropolitan areas, picking up votes from UKIP to win those Leave-voting councils instead. This is worrying for both main parties.

This week I set out what Labour could reasonably hope for: control in Barnet, Tory loss of control in Wandsworth, gains in Westminster and Hillingdon. Wins in Leave-voting areas to show Labour’s appeal stretches beyond metropolitan areas. A good show in Remainer Trafford. It didn’t hit most of those targets – but don’t let the Tories say this has been a disaster either.

Sienna @siennamarla

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