Delaying the third meaningful vote, delaying another referendum vote, delaying Brexit

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Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson agree on one thing: it would be ridiculous for Theresa May to put her deal to a vote for a third time this week. And it seems the Prime Minister might agree – though the key words are “this week”. It was widely expected after the second failed meaningful vote that May’s deal would be put to a third on Tuesday or Wednesday, but MPs may now be denied that treat until after the EU summit. After all, Downing Street must be thinking, a few more Tories will come on board, but another decisive rejection is on the cards – and why risk the possibility of parliament finally taking control?

The main Brexit debates being held within Labour are over Kyle/Wilson and Article 50 extension. It looks like the Labour leadership has definitely come to an agreement with backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, who yesterday confirmed that their amendment would involve abstaining on May’s deal (not approving it) on the condition that it is put to a ‘confirmatory ballot’.

The good news for supporters of that plan is May’s delay would improve their chances. (Remember that the People’s Vote campaign has twice told Corbyn to refrain from allowing Labour MPs to vote on the idea so far, arguing that its time has not yet arrived.) The bad news is that it probably won’t have the numbers even after the EU summit.

Another complication is the length of Article 50 extension. Both Labour and the Tories have so far (reluctantly) favoured only a short delay to Brexit, with Corbyn yesterday warning Sky’s Sophy Ridge that a “longer extension has legal complications”. It may involve holding European elections, in other words. Many Labour MPs – and not just those in Leave seats – are highly uncomfortable with that possibility. It’s why Lucy Powell last week proposed a change to Hilary Benn’s ‘indicative votes’ amendment, placing a time limit on the extension.

LabourList readers don’t seem too fussed though. Far from worried about “legal complications” or about giving the impression that the political class has ignored the 2016 result, almost 80% of 4,496 respondents to our latest survey said they would not be opposed to a longer extension, even if European elections had to take place. Only around 16% expressed opposition to that outcome.

So our anti-Brexit readership is uncowed by Theresa May’s threat of a long extension, decided by the EU, if MPs don’t agree on a deal sharpish. But the PM will be relying on her party and quite a few Labour MPs to not feel similarly when the third meaningful vote comes around.

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