Theresa May has set a trap for Labour – but she could fall into it herself

Theresa May’s latest statement, unusually, felt like a step forward. The Prime Minister who could never bring herself to compromise was suddenly in the mood to talk. Her invitation to Jeremy Corbyn was swiftly followed by briefings suggesting that her withdrawal agreement was non-negotiable – but everything else was up for grabs.

In a spirit of needed compromise, Corbyn and his team yesterday held talks with May and her advisors. They sought to find a way forward that would protect jobs and workers’ rights, allow the country to eventually move beyond the Groundhog Day of meaningful or indicative votes, and escape the disaster of no deal.

But the truth is that May’s offer was always a poisoned chalice. She knows her days are numbered. She wants to get her deal through – and if that has to be on the back of Labour votes rather than Tory ones, so be it.

Worse, May is still putting the Conservative Party before the country. She knows that getting Labour’s seal of approval on her deal would have major electoral benefits for her and the Tories. She knows that it would do to Labour what the coalition agreement did to Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems in 2010.

Labour’s vote is built on the support of Remainers. It was true in 2015 and 2017, and it’s even more true now. Every credible poll over the last year has shown that if Labour backs a public vote and Remain, we increase our vote share – making it more likely that we keep the marginal seats we have, and that we gain more and have a shot at government. Disappointing these voters would be akin to the Lib Dems tuition fees U-turn, but turned up to 11.

By backing Brexit – even a soft Brexit like Common Market 2.0 – we would see our voter base fragment to the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and newly formed, explicitly anti-Brexit Change UK. Labour supporters would see a May/Corbyn deal as a betrayal, leading to a Lib Dem-style vote collapse.

Labour would not pick up Leave voters to compensate. Just as Tory voters stuck with real austerity in 2015, not the ‘austerity-lite’ of Ed Miliband, so Leave voters would stick with the Tories, and would not be swayed by the halfway house of a customs union or single market membership.

Labour is seen as a Remain Party and that cannot be triangulated away. Going along with May’s Brexit without extracting vital Remain priorities would lead to us sharing the blame from Remainers while gaining little credit from Leavers – gambling with our voter base and jeopardising our route to power.

In 2017, people voted Labour out of hope for something different, and better, something aspirational that could have swept away the years of austerity and mean-spiritedness. To keep that hope, and to build on it for 2022 or whenever the next election is, we have to present a better future to the voters we have and to those who are considering us. Enabling May’s deal – regardless of what goes into the political declaration – would kill any optimism stone dead. Those who want May’s deal would give her the credit, while Remainers would blame us for letting it happen.

Labour still has the opportunity to play this better than the Tories. There is the distinct possibility that May could still fall into her own trap. If Labour insist on making our support of any deal conditional on a confirmatory referendum, this would show Labour living up to its promise to Remainers and Leavers alike. It would show the EU and the UK that we are the party capable of breaking the deadlock. It would bind the hands of whichever hard Brexiteer is likely to take over from May when she soon steps down. It could split the Tory vote and even their party – making a Labour victory more likely still.

May wants Corbyn to be blamed by her party for softening Brexit and our voters for enabling it. This is why a public vote must be an essential part of any deal. It is only by doing so that we can avoid May’s trap, and cause her to fall into it.