Labour activists buoyed by new Welsh poll showing six-point lead

Labour activists have been encouraged tonight by new YouGov polling of voting intentions in Wales, where Labour now has a six-point lead over the Tories according to the new finding.

The exclusive poll for ITV Wales shows that both Labour and the Conservatives have made progress since the poll at the start of November showing that Labour was on course to lose ten seats in Wales.

Based on the latest results, Labour would now lose four seats, while the Tories would gain four, the Lib Dems would secure one additional seat and Plaid Cymru would lose out from the Remain pact and lose one.

The boost comes as Welsh Labour leader Mark Drakeford launched his party’s own manifesto on Monday in the key seat of Wrexham, which Labour is still currently due to lose on December 12th.

Based on current polling, Labour would also lose Cardiff North, Gower and Vale of Clwyd to the Conservatives, according to Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University.

But Labour activists hope that the party’s lead will increase over the next two weeks and that Labour will at least be able to hold on to all its current seats.

Welsh Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 38% (+9)
CON: 32% (+4)
PC: 11% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-3)
BREX: 8% (-7)
GRN: 1% (-2)

via @YouGov, 22 – 25 Nov
Chgs. w/ early Nov

The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,116 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 22 November to 25 November 2019.