New MRP poll: Hung parliament within margin of error

Another hung parliament with no overall Tory majority is possible, according to the highly anticipated final MRP poll by YouGov for The Times released this evening.

The first analysis of this kind that was released by YouGov during the campaign – using the ‘multilevel regression and post-stratification’ technique – showed Labour securing 211 seats.

But the new projection, published at 10pm on Tuesday, shows Labour is set to win in more constituencies. The model now indicates that Labour would secure 231 seats, according to current voting intentions.

The fresh research shows Labour winning Chipping Barnet and Putney from the Tories. These constituencies have been key targets for Labour during a campaign in which the party has appeared to successfully squeeze Lib Dem votes in Remain areas.

Unlike the November poll, it also shows Labour keeping hold of Bedford, Dewsbury, Hyndburn, Kensington, Leigh, Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Stockton South, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stroud, Warrington South, Warwick and Leamington, Weaver Vale, West Bromwich East, Wolverhampton South West and Workington.

Under these circumstances, Labour would also hold Alyn and Deeside, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd and Ynys Môn in Wales, as well as Scottish seats Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and East Lothian.

YouGov now describes Lincoln and Gedling as “tossup” seats, with Labour only slightly ahead. Neighbouring seats Sedgefield and Stockton South have swapped since the last MRP poll, with both on a knife edge.

In north Wales, all six of Labour’s seats are projected to be close on December 12th. Two are predicted to go to the Tories – including Wrexham, which the party has held since 1922 – and Labour are marginally ahead in the other four.

The Lib Dems have seen a two-point decrease in vote share but the estimate for the number of seats the party would win has been revised up from 13 to 15. The poll shows South Cambridgeshire and Winchester going to the Lib Dems, as well as Caithness in Scotland.

Estimated voting intention for the Greens, SNP and the Brexit Party have stayed the same as the last poll, at 3%. The estimated number of seats the SNP will achieve has decreased by two to 41.

Labour is predicted to lose two of their seven seats to Nicola Sturgeon’s party. The contest appears to be neck-and-neck in Glasgow East, with Labour’s Kate Watson on 39% alongside SNP incumbent David Linden.

This latest analysis from YouGov predicts that the Tories would secure 22 more seats than they took in 2017, while Labour would lose 31 – falling from 262 to 231.

The November poll showed Labour losing 43 seats to the Tories, while this latest estimate now has that number down to 29. Most of the seats that Labour is predicted to lose are ones the party won at the last election, and they would go to the Conservatives.

Although the model shows a 28-seat majority for Boris Johnson’s party, there are 85 seats where the Tories are ahead by 5% or less. In 25 of these, Labour is second – meaning there would only need to be a minor shift to result in a hung parliament.

YouGov records a late narrowing in the gap, with the Tory lead shrinking from 11% to 9% over the weekend. Labour started to close the gap in 2017 several weeks from the vote, and remained steady for the final week.

Check LabourList’s poll tracker here to see all the polls ahead of the general election this Thursday.

December 10th YouGov MRP poll

Source: YouGov

CON: 43% (339 seats)
LAB: 34% (231)
LDEM: 12% (15)
SNP: 3% (41)
GRN: 3% (1)
BREX: 3% (0)
OTHER: 2% (1)
PLD: 0% (4)

105,612 respondents between December 3rd and 10th.

November 26th YouGov MRP poll

Source: YouGov

CON: 43% (359 seats)
LAB: 32% (211)
LDEM: 14% (13)
SNP: 3% (43)
GRN: 3% (1)
BREX: 3% (0)
OTHER: 1% (1)
PLD: 0% (4)

100,319 respondents between November 20th and 26th.

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