To defend key Labour Leave seats, here’s where you should campaign

Labour appears to be squeezing the Liberal Democrat vote effectively, and uniting Remainers more than was thought possible at the start of this general election campaign. But the party is struggling to defend the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats where Labour Leavers seem to be switching to other parties – including the Tories.

Datapraxis has published a report of key battleground seats, including 32 ‘Red Wall’ Labour heartland seats where “Tories are on the march”. Jeremy Corbyn’s party must work hard to defend these seats on December 12th.

Two factors will decide the outcome in these 32 seats, according to Datapraxis – how many Labour Leave voters switch to the Tories, and how many Remainers vote Labour to keep the Tories out.

The data in the report is based on 269,838 polling respondents interviewed by YouGov. Its constituency-level analysis is likely more accurate than that of other polls. Each constituency typically had 300–400 responses, and the fieldwork was done between November 4th and 22nd.

If Boris Johnson’s party wins most of the Labour Leave constituencies listed below, the Conservatives are set to secure a large Commons majority on Thursday. As many as 20% of 2017 Labour Leavers are currently undecided as to who to vote for and turnout will be key, so campaigning in these seat is crucial.

LabourList has picked out the ‘Red Wall’ seats, along with their predicted majorities as set out by Datapraxis, to help you decide where to go on polling day:

1. Stoke-on-Trent, Ruth Smeeth – predicted majority: Conservative 226.
2. Bolsover, Dennis Skinner – predicted majority: Conservative 3,207.
3. Crewe and Nantwich, Laura Smith – predicted majority: Conservative 2,931.
4. Stroud, David Drew – predicted majority: Conservative 2,501.
5. Bedford, Mohammed Yasin – predicted majority: Conservative 591.
6. Bradforth South, Judith Cummins – predicted majority: Conservative 854.
7. Colne Valley, Thelma Walker – predicted majority: Conservative 783.
8. Coventry North West, Taiwo Owatemi – predicted majority: Conservative 50.
9. Coventry South, Zarah Sultana – predicted majority: Conservative 46.
10. Darlington, Jenny Chapman – predicted majority: Conservative 840.
11. Dewsbury, Paula Sherriff – predicted majority: Conservative 801.
12. Hyndburn, Graham Jones – predicted majority: Labour 2,104.
13. Ipswich, Sandy Martin – predicted majority: Conservative 2,196.
14. Keighly, John Grogan – predicted majority: Conservative 758.
15. Leigh, Joanne Platt – predicted majority: Conservative 395.
16. Warrington South, Faisal Rashid – predicted majority: Conservative 124.
17. Warwick and Leamington, Matt Western – predicted majority: Labour 489.
18. West Bromwich East, Ibrahim Dogus – predicted majority: Conservative 706.
19. West Bromwich West, James Cunningham – predicted majority: Conservative 2,074.
20. Wolverhampton North East, Emma Reynolds – predicted majority: Conservative 757.
21. Workington, Sue Hayman – predicted majority: Conservative 2,059.
22. Vale of Clywd, Chris Ruane – predicted majority: Labour 659.
23. Clywd South, Susan Elan Jones – predicted majority: Labour 1,039.
24. Bishop Auckland, Helen Goodman – predicted majority: Labour 138.
25. Bury South, Lucy Burke – predicted majority: Conservative 1,315.
26. Peterborough, Lisa Forbes – predicted majority: Conservative 3,241.
27. Stockton South, Paul Williams – predicted majority: Labour 53.
28. Wakefield, Mary Creagh – predicted majority: Conservative 380.
29. Wolverhampton South West, Eleanor Smith – predicted majority: Conservative 2,147.
30. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Hugh Gaffney – predicted majority: Labour 4,851.
31. East Lothian, Martin Whitfield – predicted majority: Conservative 2,847.
32. Wrexham, Mary Wimbury – predicted majority: Conservative 2,169.