Starmer ahead in race to replace Corbyn, poll finds

Keir Starmer is currently the favourite among Labour members to replace Jeremy Corbyn, a new poll has found ahead of the leadership election expected to formally start next week.

The poll by YouGov for the Economic and Social Research Council’s Party Members Project places the Shadow Brexit Secretary as the victor against other potential candidates such as Rebecca Long-Bailey, who is considered to be the Corbynite frontrunner.

Asked to select their first preferences, 31% of respondents chose Starmer, compared to 20% opting for Long-Bailey. 11% picked Jess Phillips, 7% Yvette Cooper and Clive Lewis, 6% Emily Thornberry and 5% Lisa Nandy.

After all preferences were allocated in the final round, emulating Labour’s preferential voting system used for leadership contests, the survey showed Starmer winning a 61% vote share with 39% going to Long-Bailey, the Shadow Business Secretary.

Demographic details of the present voting intentions showed that Starmer won against Long-Bailey in every category except Leave voters, which saw a 60/40 divide in favour of the Corbynite contender. His lead was also very narrow among C2DE (working-class) voters.

Labour uses a preferential voting system for its leadership selection, in which members rank candidates in order of preference. If more than 50% of members favour the same candidate, they are elected. If there is no overall winner, the person who received the least votes is removed and their votes are redistributed according to next preferences.

Long-Bailey confirmed that she was considering a bid on December 29th, while Starmer said he was “seriously considering” running on the 18th. Members were surveyed between the 20th and 30th.

The research, commissioned by the Party Members Project, surveyed 1,059 party members as part of the research – but affiliates and registered supporters, who will also get a vote in the contest, were not included.

A registered supporter pays a fee to be able to vote in the election. In 2015, the NEC set the rate at £3 and more than 100,000 people signed up. The cost is yet to be determined for this election, but the 2016 leader election saw a higher fee of £25.

Affiliates include members of trade unions as well as socialist societies officially linked to the party such as the Fabian Society, LGBT Labour and the Jewish Labour Movement.

Thornberry and Lewis are the only candidates to have formally announced so far. Ian Lavery, David Lammy and Dan Jarvis are possible candidates too.