The state of the Labour leadership race as ballots begin to drop

Ballots start dropping today. Party members, affiliate members and registered supporters will have a number of contests to consider. First up, the Labour leadership contests: a choice of three for the top job; a selection of five for deputy. With a preferential voting system, the selectorate will be ranking candidates – and that is crucial to the chances of Lisa Nandy. Her hopes rest on coming second to Keir Starmer in first preferences, then picking up enough second preferences from Rebecca Long-Bailey backers to sweep to victory.

But Long-Bailey’s camp reckon they are closing in on Starmer for first place, and they say the next few days will be crucial. The majority are expected to cast their ballots at the beginning of this six-week voting period. The party-affiliated FBU is releasing a trio of videos in support of her – the first of which, put out last night, highlights the loyalty of Long-Bailey and the participation of her rivals in the 2016 ‘coup’ sparked by mass shadow cabinet resignations.

Although Starmer is widely thought to be the clear frontrunner – based on polling, but also winning over 58% of local party nominations – he has not been slacking. Not taking anything for granted, the Holborn MP continued a mass phonebanking operation over the weekend, did an interview with the Observer, and released two videos – one focussing on party unity, the other attacking the Tories. Putting the future of Labour and the country at the centre of his messaging now seems like a wise move at a time when members appear tired of in-fighting.

There are other internal contests that should not be overlooked. The question of who sits on Labour’s national executive committee is an important one, as evidenced by the Momentum email to its members last night that placed a reminder of their NEC slate above a call for Long-Bailey votes. There have been further suspensions of candidates in the three NEC by-elections, actioned on the basis of antisemitism allegations, which has cleared the path for a more obvious Labour left slate. This is a noteworthy development, as the left majority on the ruling body is soft and narrow. It will be very interesting to see whether the factional alignments of the leadership and NEC results in April match up. If not, the leader may want to work the full summer NEC elections hard to change that situation.

As we enter the final phase of the leadership race, it is worth congratulating each of the candidates already. The number of hustings has been staggering, exhausting for the LabourList team let alone the leadership hopefuls themselves, and they have all had to sacrifice time with their families to engage with members and communicate their ideas every day. And there are still almost six weeks to go! So, thanks for all their hard work so far and for the efforts ahead.

• Today: Ballots for leadership contests and NEC by-elections start dropping; parliament returns from recess (2.30pm)
• Tuesday: Guardian leadership hustings in Manchester (6.30pm)
• Wednesday: PMQs (12pm); Arise rally with Richard Burgon and others in London (7pm); Beer and Brexit with John McDonnell (7pm)
• Thursday: Sky News live Labour leadership debate (8pm)
• Saturday: Party leadership hustings in Brighton