Tory lead narrows amid pressure over Cummings story

The Tory lead in the polls has narrowed from 15 points to six amid pressure on the government following its response to reports that key adviser Dominic Cummings broke lockdown rules.

New polling from YouGov shows that the Conservative Party’s share of voting intention has fallen from 48% over the last week to 44%. Labour has seen an increase in support from 33% to 38% over the same period.

Another poll by JL Partners showed that Keir Starmer also narrowed the gap on who the public think would make the best Prime Minister, by seven points. 37% opted for Johnson while 34% think the Labour leader would be better.

Labour seems to be the only beneficiary of the Tories’ slip in the YouGov poll, with support for the Lib Dems and SNP remaining unchanged on 6% and 5% respectively – the Greens have seen their support fall by one point to 4%.

The Conservatives saw the biggest loss of support in the North of England, with the Tory share of voting intention falling eight points from 47% to 39%. Labour widened its lead in the region as its share increased by six points to 49%.

The Labour Party also saw its support increase by seven points in London, five in the rest of the South of England, and one in the Midlands and Wales and Scotland.

In terms of age, support for Labour increased most among those voters over the age of 65 – rising by seven points over the course of the past week to 24%. In contrast, the Tory vote share within this group fell from 70% to 64%.

Despite government ministers and the Prime Minister defending Cummings’ actions, 71% of YouGov respondents thought that the senior aide had broken the rules when he travelled 260 miles to his parents’ home in Durham.

59% thought that the aide to Johnson should resign his position, while 27% said that he should not. Among Labour voters, 76% thought he should go with only 10% saying that he should stay in his job.

Among Conservative voters, opinion was divided. 46% each felt that the senior aide should either resign or remain in his position, with 8% answering that they “don’t know”.

A majority of Leave voters – 52% – thought that the director of the Vote Leave campaign should resign, compared to 38% backing him to stay. 71% of Remainers thought he should step down.

Respondents between the ages of 25 and 65 thought most strongly that the aide should resign, with over 60% saying that he should go. This fells slightly for those over 65, with a larger proportion showing support for Cummings.

A larger share of voters under the age of 25 said that they “don’t know” whether he should resign. 48% expressed the view that he should step down from his job while 24% said that he should stay.

Voters in Scotland overwhelmingly thought that the adviser should resign at 82%. Londoners were next highest at 64%, while 60% in the North, 54% of those in the Midlands and Wales, and 53% in the South thought he should step down.

Cummings has said that people are angry as a result of misleading coverage. But 57% thought that the media had been “very fair” or “somewhat fair”, compared to only 33% that thought they had been “somewhat unfair” or “very unfair”.

70% thought that the row will make it harder for the government to communicate lockdown messages to the public in the future. 18% thought it would not have an impact and 2% thought it would make it easier.