Labour is wise to manage expectations – but the May elections will be a KPI

Labour strategists expect the Tories to benefit from a ‘vaccine bounce’ in the May elections and the leadership is prepared for a mixed set of local and mayoral results in England, HuffPost UK has reported today. Private polling apparently suggests the Conservative incumbent will keep the Tees Valley metro mayor post by a large margin, despite the efforts of Labour candidate Jessie Joe Jacobs. The Tories are also set to do well in the West Midlands, where Liam Byrne has been shadowing Andy Street for almost a year, and are predicted to hold onto the West of England mayoralty, although their current man is not re-standing and has been replaced by a new candidate.

It seems absurd to be talking about a Covid electoral bounce for Boris Johnson on the day that the UK death toll surpasses 100,000. But it is true that the UK has one of the highest Covid-19 vaccination rates in the world. While the British public has become increasingly critical of the government’s handling of coronavirus since the pandemic hit the country last year, there is now a clear element of its response that people consider to be a success. YouGov research indicates that 61% of Britons thought the roll-out has been handled well in mid-January. By the time May 6th arrives, many millions more should be vaccinated.

The very fact that this story has been briefed to HuffPost UK, in the expectation that it will be read by political reporters and commentators, tells us something about the leader’s office: they are managing expectations. In the run-up to the local elections in 2018, Labour allowed expectations to spiral out of control, such that not turning Westminster, Wandsworth and Kensington red was portrayed as a crushing disappointment for the party. This happened because a Corbynsceptic party HQ had been accused of lacking ambition in its targets in 2017 and because optimism at the top boosts the enthusiasm of activists on the ground. It was understandable, but unwise, and the party adjusted its approach to locals the following year.

But there is no escaping the fact that the results of the May elections will be the key performance indicator for Keir Starmer. It is how everyone will measure the success of the new leadership and its strategy, particularly as Starmer was chosen by party members on the central promise of electability. Central to this analysis in May will be Labour’s performance in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats. This was the most scrutinised part of the 2019 defeat, and these areas are commonly deemed by the media to be the most important to win back at the next general election. Starmer has revealed that he shares this priority, as shown clearly in the Brexit vote. While coronavirus makes things tough for the opposition in some critical ways, Labour’s ability to make progress in contests like Liam Byrne’s West Midlands race will be considered the most significant measure of Starmer’s success in a few months’ time.