Steve Akehurst and Tom Mauchline have offered an intriguing analysis (writing in Strong Message Here) pointing towards a tentative way for Labour to win the next general election. They convincingly demonstrate how some traditional Tory constituencies, mainly in the suburbs of cities and in towns and seaside areas, can easily be categorised as ‘Blue Wall’ seats, vulnerable to a Tory-to-Labour swing.
Steve and Tom’s analysis is based on the premise that a swing back to Labour in ‘Red Wall’ seats, accompanied by a swing to Labour in ‘Blue Wall’ seats and a revival of the Labour vote in Scotland, could be sufficient to create a winning coalition of voters across the UK.
There are, however, formidable obstacles to that outcome actually materialising. First, the ‘Blue Wall’ seats are accurately described as socially liberal and broadly pro-EU, whereas the ‘Red Wall’ seats are seen as socially conservative and Brexit-leaning. Reconciling the two will be no easy task.
Secondly, the continuing high level of support for independence in Scotland unfortunately shows little sign of collapsing any time soon, although the newly invigorated Labour Party in Scotland, under Anas Sarwar’s leadership, is gaining some traction in countering the nationalist narrative. The problem for Labour in Scotland is the Tories. For generations, the people there loyally voted Labour in election after election, only to find themselves still governed by the Tories.
Thirdly, as anybody who canvassed in the last general election cannot have failed to notice, Labour is seen by many voters as hating our own country. This phenomenon is well-documented, not least by Deborah Mattinson (author of Beyond the Red Wall), who concludes from her work with focus groups in ‘Red Wall’ areas that we are seen as unpatriotic.
A good friend of mine who joined the army as a boy soldier after leaving school exemplifies that trend. Unusually for a working-class recruit, he rose through the ranks to become a colonel by the time he retired. Having served his country in conflicts in Northern Ireland, Bosnia and other dangerous postings, he feels a great deal of hostility towards Labour as a party that, as he sees it, has supported every terrorist group and brutal dictator, although otherwise his values are Labour.
Time after time on the doorstep at the last general election, I encountered ex-military personnel who expressed the same sentiment which belittles in their minds their service of our country. So, is there a way of building a coalition of voters in the ‘Red Wall’, ‘Blue Wall’ and Scottish constituencies?
I strongly believe that, if we look back on our own history, there is an answer to that question: when we unselfconsciously present a narrative of modernisation. All three successful, election-winning Labour leaders were able to do so: Clement Attlee, with Labour’s ambitious programme to create a modern welfare state and actively intervene in the economy succeeded in doing so; as did Harold Wilson, by invoking the exciting potential of “the white heat” of science and technology, and harnessing it to create economic success and growth and; Tony Blair, by hitching the Labour wagon to ‘Cool Britannia’ and a young country at ease with itself, which explicitly positions us as being ambitious for our country and its people.
Not only did those compelling modernisation narratives enable us to attract a broad coalition of voters; they also gained us substantial parliamentary majorities in 1945, 1966 and 1997. I know that Keir Starmer understands that history and is himself an instinctive moderniser, so it is running with the grain of our party as it now is.
Modernisation, in any event, is the central purpose of any progressive political party. Having two potentially enormous advantages in the currently narrowly focused political atmosphere. First, it enables us to take ownership of the future. Secondly, by virtue of having an ambitious narrative about the potential of our country and its people, it gives the lie to the impression many voters have about our own lack of patriotism.
Such a narrative, however, needs to be firmly anchored to our progressive values. It must be achievable, compelling and unapologetically celebrate our national talent and latent potential. And it needs to be repeated, mantra-like over and over again, so that it becomes firmly lodged in people’s minds that we stand for modernisation of our country.
Many on the left fear modernisation, wrongly seeing it as an abandonment of our socialist values and ideological traditions. They fail to understand, however, that the central purpose of the left has always been modernisation as the key to greater equality and social justice.
If we are to blow away the cobwebs, which too often entangle us and consequently facilitate governments devoted to the preservation of privilege and the status quo, we must as a party embody modernisation. In doing so, we demonstrate our patriotism, reconnecting us with the people we aspire to represent.
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