“Nobody told me“: Johnson’s departure becomes a question of when not if

There is nothing like a bit of blue on blue. They are actually much better at internal warfare than the red team: more cutting and more lethal. The atmosphere at the moment is “febrile”, as just about everyone in Westminster has observed. It seems very unlikely right now that Boris Johnson will survive until the next general election, or that the Tories will reach the May elections without a vote of confidence. While things can change quickly, this feels different because it is difficult to imagine that Johnson can recover. Rather than a question of controversial policy that can be reshaped or muddled through, this is a matter of basic standards – and it is personal.

“Nobody told me,” the Prime Minister protested, in possibly the most devastating pool interview ever thanks to Beth Rigby’s relentless approach. (‘Stop, stop, he’s already dead!’ came to mind, though not really of course, because Johnson has created this entirely unnecessary situation for himself.) Nobody told the man making the rules that the party in his garden was against the rules. In fact, he still appears to be under the impression that a “work event” would have been within the rules. The thing about being Prime Minister during a pandemic – one in which people have been fined thousands of pounds for breaking unprecedented laws restricting our social activities – is that playing dumb to avoid responsibility looks just as bad as lying.

At least 11 of the 2019 Tory intake have submitted their letters of no confidence today, according to The Telegraph. Constituents are utterly furious and letting their MPs know. ‘Operation Save Big Dog’, or whatever silly name it currently has, reacted to dissent among that most recent crop of MPs yesterday by insulting them. “It’s pretty sickening. They were only elected because of him. Most of them are a load of fucking nobodies,” one cabinet source told The Times. Ah, brilliant, that’ll win them over. Laura Kuenssberg reports that some 2019ers have been threatened with having their constituencies disappear under boundary changes – I assume what this actually means is they won’t be selected for redrawn seats – and as a result half of the group put their letters in this morning.

Many Conservative MPs are not convinced that Johnson needs to go, while others think they should not reach the threshold of 54 no-confidence letters yet, persuaded by the line that we should wait for Sue Gray, or for the May elections. There is nervousness about which Tory could replace Johnson and about holding a leadership election amid multiple crises. But as the interview yesterday showed, Johnson is his own worst enemy, and PMQs at noon could be the final nail in the coffin of his premiership. Some in Labour reckon the end should be prolonged for as long as possible. “It’s a nice and unusual feeling to be ahead of the polls!” one shadow minister told me yesterday. “I suspect it may evaporate once Johnson goes but if it doesn’t we are in business.” Of course, a vote of no confidence going ahead soon and it being narrowly lost would be the best-case scenario in cynical electoral terms, but there is no use overthinking this – ultimately it’s win-win here for Labour. Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for everything Labour, every weekday morning.