May 5th will be tricky – but don’t forget how far we’ve come in just two years

Labour can win the next general election. On the morning of 13th December 2019, as the extent of Boris Johnson’s majority became clear and Tory aides sang ‘Things Can Only Get Better‘ after a decade of Conservative rule, the prospect of a Labour government seemed depressingly remote. Commentators spoke of a further ten years, at least, for Labour to rebuild: 2019 was meant to be akin to 1983, with a further 14 years of opposition required before New Labour swept to power.

That we have a realistic prospect of forming the next government just two years later is an achievement that should not be overlooked. Labour has been consistently leading in the voter intention polls since the end of last year and, more importantly at this stage, Keir Starmer remains a more trusted and prime ministerial figure than any recent Labour leader. On several key metrics, Labour is ahead of the Tories: we are more trusted than the Conservatives to handle public services, the NHS, education and energy policy. Critically, Labour is winning on four or five key economic metrics, including the best party to run the economy – a sign of Rachel Reeves impressive performance as Shadow Chancellor. The Conservatives only lead on ‘deficit reduction’.

Yet, we must not get too excited. The latest YouGov poll, giving Labour a four-point lead, would lead to a hung parliament, with Labour only securing 15 more MPs than the Conservatives (on current boundaries, which are likely to change before the next general election in the Conservatives’ favour). The extent of the swing required for Labour to form a majority government is underestimated. Labour would need a historic swing of over 10% – more than Tony Blair achieved in his 1997 landslide – to gain a majority of one seat. As Starmer himself acknowledges, on the second anniversary of him taking the leadership, it represents an electoral mountain to climb, and he needs to achieve what Neil Kinnock, John Smith and Tony Blair did in three parliaments in just one term. But already the party has made more progress with many target swing voters – especially in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats – than it might have dared hope.

More immediately, as Labour launches its local elections campaign, progress on May 5th will be trickier than one might assume. A narrative amongst sometimes lazy political journalists in Westminster is that Boris Johnson will be given a hiding next month at the ballot box, as his personal ratings have plummeted in the aftermath of partygate and his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, suffers a similar fate after his anaemic response to the cost-of-living crisis. Indeed, many had, prior to the invasion of Ukraine, assumed that the local elections would be the final nail in Johnson’s premiership.

However, local elections are often a red herring when attempting to assess performance on a national scale. Local issues, parties and the nature of council elections all play their part. In these elections, there are few competitive seats that would enable Labour to make significant gains in councils where they could take control. Such elections can also be used by the electorate to protest on particular issues. In 2018, when Brexit was the all-encompassing issue in British politics, the Liberal Democrats and independents secured around 30% of the vote, whereby they were polling at around a third of that when assessing Westminster voting intention. A year later, the Lib Dems performed disastrously at a general election.

On closer inspection, the nature of these local elections muddies the water further. In 2014 and 2018, Labour did remarkably well. At both these sets of elections, the respective Conservative Prime Ministers were staggeringly unpopular – David Cameron at the height of austerity and Theresa May in the midst of Brexit paralysis. Labour starts this year’s election campaign at a high watermark. There is little room for significant further gains.

Labour already holds over half of the seats that are up for grabs. In London, in 2018, the last time these seats were contested, the Conservatives suffered their worst results in half a century and Labour won 44% of the vote. In Scotland, the use of STV (single transferable vote) means drastic seat changes are highly unlikely, and all councils will almost certainly remain with no party in overall control. In Wales, there are a number of independents that make any assessment of Labour’s progress more difficult to effectively assess (although look out for results in Flintshire and Wrexham, where Labour will be looking to make gains in places they lost in 2019). If on the morning after the vote, Conservative chair Oliver Dowden is on the radio bragging about a result similar to one of their worst in modern history, we must not be hoodwinked. The media will play into their hands, if they fall for such tricks.

Of course, that does not mean Labour should simply overlook the results. The party should be seeking a considerably larger vote share than the Conservatives, and there are votes in areas that Labour has lost in 2019 and need to win back, which the party will need to analyse forensically. In particular, results in Amber Valley, Derby and Hartlepool will be watched closely for signs of progress. Elsewhere, the mayoralty in South Yorkshire, with Labour’s candidate Oliver Coppard running an energetic campaign, will be an important indicator as to the party’s progress in the region, where the Tories made substantial gains in 2019.

Johnson plays the media brilliantly. The Westminster media bubble may very well fall for a narrative that has him, like a political Houdini, surviving seemingly miraculously. Many of the proponents of this narrative will not have a thorough understanding of the nature of these elections. Labour must hold its nerve. Much progress has been made, and the next election is there to be won.