With a united party and bold policy, we can beat the Tories at the next election

As political slogans go, it didn’t work out well for that nice man David Steel when he urged the Liberals to “go back to [their] constituencies and prepare for government”. But perhaps it is the message that Keir Starmer ought to be giving to Labour Party members right now. If this parliament runs its full course, then December 2024 would seem the obvious date of the next general election. But the “obvious” is hardly ever the politically expedient.

The Prime Minister is in trouble. He was never a conviction politician, but he is now a convicted one and his own backbenchers are angry. The local elections have ensured party discipline up to May 5th, but after that – and the predicted Conservative drubbing – he has to find new ways to keep his troops quiescent. So if you were wondering why it was that the writ for the Wakefield by-election has not yet been laid before parliament, you have your answer.

To keep the Prime Minister bulwarked against letters going into the 1922 committee, he needs to issue the writ quickly after the local elections but also long enough after to ensure maximum ‘Big Dog’ rescue time. That would suggest a by-election on June 23rd, less than a month before the summer recess. Not enough time to depose a leader.

No doubt all this will be accompanied by a reshuffle to keep potential regicidal heads down. Any reshuffle will doubtless also dispense with the already bruised Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who once appeared a potential threat. And so it is that the can gets kicked down the road until September.

But what happens then? Tory backbenchers have had a summer to lick their wounds and consult with their Conservative Association members. That is a dangerous combination for Johnson. Many Tories are already telling Labour canvassers on the doorstep that they are unhappy with Johnson and may decline to vote in the local elections. If they are saying that to us, what do you think they are saying to their own Tory MP?

September is the time Johnson has to play his trump card and call a general election. His message to his MPs is simple: “If you try to get rid of me, then the public will get rid of you.” The timing is economically convenient and the mathematics works in Johnson’s favour. After October and the next rise in energy prices, the economy is going to be in free fall. Inflation, already predicted to reach more than 8%, will rise further. The IMF says we will be the slowest growing major economy in the world in 2023, and a Conservative Party seeking re-election in the midst of such a cost-of-living crisis would suffer a catastrophic defeat. So better get the pain over and done with now before the full force of the recession hits. And with an 80-seat majority, he can afford to lose scores of seats and still form a government. Johnson will set his record as a charismatic campaigner against a largely untested opposition leader, and he will get his MPs to back him.

And what does he say to the country? “I’ve had three years. In the first, I got Brexit done. In the second, I got us through the pandemic. In the third, I dealt with the war in Ukraine. I now need a new mandate, because it is going to take a full five years to fix this.” Yes, we know it is spin and nonsense – but it is plausible spin and nonsense, and Tory MPs will gamble that the public may swallow it.

So what does this mean for us in the Labour Party? It means two things: unity and policy. Many of us still remember the ten-point pledge Keir made to the party during the leadership contest just two years ago. It contained the promise to “unite our party, promote pluralism and improve our culture”. This is what he said was necessary for “forensic, effective opposition to the Tories in parliament – linked to our mass membership”. Well, he was right, but the truth is that our mass membership has declined and our bonds of unity have been strained.

How many years have Labour members marched under the banner of ‘Unity is Strength’ only to turn on ourselves, forgetting that it is the Conservative government that we should be targeting? The Labour Party is not, and never should become, the preserve of a clique of the politically pure – whether of the right or the left. Our party is defined not by what it says, but by what it does. It is what Harold Wilson called a “moral crusade” to free the people of this country from the insecurity of poverty, the blight of injustice and the shackles of powerlessness. We can only do that when we look out to what they need, rather than inwards to who we are.

Underlying everything is policy – the means by which we reverse the balance of power and wealth in this country. Two decades ago, Tony Blair said: “We’re at our best when we’re at our boldest.” He was right too. We need to present a bold vision to the country this summer. It needs to galvanise the whole labour and trade union movement around decent wages, safe, affordable homes, jobs and wealth from a new clean industrial revolution, employment rights, a right to food and a new compact around health and care that gives people confidence and security in their time of need.

We may have only six months until a general election gives us that amazing opportunity to implement transformative change for families who need it so badly. Our country has been through a tough two years with the pandemic. We know what we stand for in the labour movement. But it is time for Keir to spell it out, to inspire people, to articulate a vision for the country that people recognise will work for them. We must not squander this opportunity.