Lessons for a Labour landslide in the Conservative catastrophe of 1997

In nature, landslides are caused by disturbances in stability. Whether through the heavy rains of the cost-of-living crisis or the earthquakes of Tory scandals, the government’s foundations appear to be falling away beneath it. Much has been written on how the 1990s New Labour project led to a ‘new dawn’ breaking in British politics. Less is said about the Conservative catastrophe that gave Tony Blair a sizeable leg up into No 10. A landslide away from government can have the same outcome as a landslide towards the opposition. Both would be helpful now.

Solving the problem

Looking back to the 1997 election, Daniel Finkelstein, then director of the Conservative Research Department, reflected that “without a clear and fresh purpose, the Conservative Party in 1997 was like the ‘winter of discontent’ running for office – we were the problem the voters were trying to solve”.

Disillusioned Tories expecting a Labour landslide knew that they did not have to vote in order to get what they wanted, contributing to the lowest electoral turnout since 1935. Within this low turnout, there was a 10.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour, the highest of any party since 1945.

A guiding principle of New Labour’s campaign, according to strategist Philip Gould, was the “unceasing focus on 1992 Tory voters”. When the dust settled in 1997, an average of 9,000 fewer people had voted in Labour seats compared to Conservative ones. In other words, if Labour had a chance of winning in a constituency, many Conservative-leaning voters stayed at home and let it happen.

The Tories lost all their seats in Scotland and Wales, and were left with just 17 MPs north of the English Midlands. This was not, however, always a direct switch to Labour. The Lib Dems achieved their best result since (the Liberals) 1929 and the SNP doubled their MP count to gain 22% of the vote in Scotland.

Former Conservative voters staying at home is helpful to Labour, but there is a greater prize if they switch their support directly. There was good reason for Keir Starmer to be optimistic this month, as polling showed that 13% of those who voted Tory in 2019 now say they will vote Labour. This is almost 1997 levels of switching according to Chris Curtis, polling guru at Opinium.

The economy, stupid

So what led to Conservative catastrophe in 1997? To paraphrase Bill Clinton’s 1990s slogan, was it the economy, stupid? Well, yes – and no. Voters rejecting the Conservatives in 1997 were actually an unlikely phenomenon for one key reason: the Tory government at the time was presiding over the healthiest economy for two generations.

But voter perceptions is more important than objective economic realities. It is widely agreed that the public lost trust in the Conservatives’ economic policies after September 1992 with ‘Black Wednesday’ and the exchange rate mechanism debacle. From this point up to the 1997 election, Labour held a consistent double-figure lead in the polls.

Conservative catastrophe and Labour success, in our first-past-the-post system, should be two sides of the same coin. But if ‘Black Wednesday’ was truly the beginning of the end for 18 years of Tory rule, then it is clear that Conservative catastrophe struck two years before Blair’s ascent to the leadership and the inception of ‘New Labour’.

For the first time this summer, Labour and Starmer have overtaken the Conservatives and Boris Johnson in voter polls on managing the economy. The cost-of-living crisis and government inaction to address it will leave the country in a significantly worse economic position going into the next election than John Major’s government presided over in 1997.

Turning the tide

Of course, the electoral maths have changed since the Conservative catastrophe of the 1990s. In 1992, the Tories were re-elected but did not possess an overwhelming popular consensus. Voters had, in fact, swung towards Labour by 1.7% in 1987 and 2.1% in 1992. The 1997 result benefited from a decade-long process of vote transfer, like pressure building as floodwaters hit a creaking dam.

Following the 2019 election, which saw the number of Labour MPs freefall as the Tories claimed a landslide of their own, Starmer has the more significant task of turning the tide entirely. A swing close to the size of 1997 would today secure Labour a precarious majority, so Starmer would need to make history by doubling it if he is hoping for a parliamentary landslide of New Labour proportions.

The media landslide

When the tide does turn, a sure sign will be in the media’s response to Labour. The press, which is usually significantly more sympathetic towards Conservative election campaigns, defected en masse in 1997 – causing the Labour-supporting papers to reach 21.6 million readers, more than double the 10.6 million of the Conservative-supporting press in that year.

It is unclear whether this was key to settling that election in Labour’s favour, or if it simply reveals a cynical media blowing with the wind to back the obvious winners. Either way today, while some parts of the traditionally right-wing media are giving the Conservatives increasingly short shrift, the press is yet to show much sympathy for the Labour Party.

The digital age of the 2020s may reduce the impact of press loyalty on voting behaviour, but there is still a chance that a switch in support from the media outlets would represent the loudest and clearest warning alarm that a landslide could be on the way.

Conservative catastrophe

The challenge, then, is to make the Conservative Party into the problem that voters want to solve at the next election. This summer, the Tories have been doing a fine job of that themselves. In 1997, their share of the vote, 32%, was the worst for the party since 1832. Today, the Tories are regularly polling at that level and below.

The low election turnout in 1997 relative to previous years showed that New Labour’s win was a tactical takeover, not necessarily a public awakening. It is fantastic when people vote for Labour, but 1997 showed the importance of people feeling motivated to vote against the Conservatives instead.

The Tories have not won a fifth consecutive term in government for nearly 200 years. 1997 was the last time they were stopped after four terms, and they were kicked out of office in style. The Labour Party could do it again. Where there is Conservative catastrophe, there could always be a Labour landslide.