Five steps Keir Starmer and the Labour Party must take to win power

It is often said that being leader of the opposition is the most difficult job in British politics. This is not helped for Keir Starmer by having a revolving door of opponents, with five Prime Ministers in the last seven years. As the Conservatives hurriedly cement Rishi Sunak’s place in Downing Street as fast as they can, there are five steps for Starmer and the Labour Party to win power on the road ahead.

The first step is relentlessly challenge Sunak’s mandate with continuous calls for a general election. The Conservatives will not want to go to the polls. One reason is that they have fallen to record lows trailing Labour by as many as 30 points and behind on every policy issue. A second reason is Sunak will want time to establish his administration charting enough of a new direction to help make the public forget Liz Truss’s time in office as soon as possible.

Calling for a general election is not opportunism, as should be emphasised. The position is principled; there was no mandate for Truss taking a wrecking ball to the economy for which taxpayers will be footing the bill for many months, if not years, to come. Nor is there a mandate for a different direction than set out in the Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto. A general election is required to create a mandate – and Sunak will look progressively weaker every time he says no. The public will soon see him as a Prime Minister anointed by his party and for his party, not the country, and desperately seeking to avoid the public’s judgement. Sunak’s Conservatives start at a bad place having lost public trust. This could get worse.

The second step is treating Sunak’s government as a team without a public mandate. When Boris Johnson championed 2019 manifesto pledges, Labour was restricted in the means available to challenge. The Conservatives still have a strong numerical majority to get legislation through the Commons. The Salisbury convention means that the House of Lords does not try to vote down government legislation mentioned in an election manifesto at second or third reading.

But everything changes with Sunak taking a different direction from the manifesto pledges on which his party campaigned. Parting with these pledges should be seized on in the Commons as yet more broken promises – further cementing the view that Conservatives have reinvented the U-turn – that will feature in future campaigns. Additionally, legislation that isn’t linked to their manifesto won’t run afoul of the Salisbury convention and so might be blocked by the Lords, if not by the Commons, paralysing the government into inaction.

The third step is to highlight Sunak’s economic record in government. We are in a financial mess made worse by Truss’s kamikaze ‘mini-Budget’, but it was a mess before she unveiled her Jenga-like podium. Sunak should be seen as a Chancellor who oversaw a period of high tax and low growth in which Britain did not achieve its potential, and who is now leading us now into another period of austerity.

It should be a damning indictment that 12 years of Conservative government are bookended by austerity at the start – and now showing a whole generation that the Tories have lost their grip on sound economic management whoever is in charge. This matters because no policy area is more damaging for the Conservatives than economic competency. Without it, they begin to lose much of the reason for why their supporters want the party to exist. It is existential to the Tory brand.

The fourth step is presenting Sunak as weak on crime. His supporters will point to the government’s various schemes to help businesses and workers get through the pandemic as a strength. But this is a key weakness. Over £1bn has since been written off for suspected fraud – and this is separate from the billions in wasteful spending during that period and on his watch.

Fraud matters. The House of Commons’ justice committee found that there are about 4.6 million fraud offences each year, but only 7,609 defendants prosecuted last year. Over 40% of all reported crime is fraud-related yet only about 2% of police funding is spent tackling it. During Sunak’s time in government, Britain has become the fraud capital of the world. While the Conservatives promised more police, they remain far short of their target – and even that is less overall police than there were under the last Labour government over a decade ago. Fraud impacts so many, can have devastating effects on livelihoods and well-being, damages the economy and a reminder that this sorry state has got worse under the Tories – and, specifically, under Sunak, which is why Labour should promote key policies aimed at more effectively monitoring and prosecuting fraud offences.

The fifth and final step is for Labour to continue to push forward with focus and discipline as if the polls were unchanged. This hard work is paying off but there’s no room for complacency. While opinion is divided between whether to stay the course or make a more radical policy offer, I recommend a middle ground. The best way to be seen as the next government is to act like one. I would support training for all frontbench shadow ministers on what to expect and how to hit the ground running if in government. I would recommend that all policy offers are fully costed and credible. I’d work out both an inspiring manifesto, but also develop a more detailed plan for government.

The best way for Labour to show a new look and break from the past is to revisit its logo and champion a new image with red, white and blue – something I was delighted to see at Labour’s annual conference. I have also argued that Labour should be driven by a central message about competence with compassion, showing the public that Labour was on their side. This is exactly what has happened since and to excellent effect.

One example is the dividing line on energy bills. While the Tories are happy with business as usual and ensuring big energy firms get their unexpected bumper profits paid for by higher taxes on working people, Starmer’s Labour champions a windfall tax saving working people enormously and creating a new public owned company – Great British Energy – to develop clean energy, great jobs and energy security through renewable sources. British energy will power, and empower, Britain.

These five steps outlined above are ways that Labour should follow on the road to Downing Street. The Conservatives are getting everything wrong, but they will not roll over or make it easy. And Labour must scrap for every vote from its restricted position as leading the opposition. Rishi Sunak may be anointed Prime Minister by his party today, but Keir Starmer’s astoundingly successful transformation of the Labour Party can ensure he is our next elected Prime Minister in possibly the greatest political comeback of my lifetime. If Starmer follows these five steps, he may well achieve this sooner rather than later.