The Labour Party would be returned to parliament with a 314-seat majority and the Conservatives would suffer a complete wipeout in the North of England if a general election were held tomorrow, according to new polling by Savanta.
The results of the pollster’s multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, published this afternoon, predicted that Keir Starmer’s party would see its share of seats in the Commons increase by 280 compared to the last election.
The research found that 48% (+3 on the last survey by the polling company) of voters intend to back Labour at the next election, 28% would support Rishi Sunak’s Tories (-5), 11% would vote Lib Dem (+1), 4% Reform UK (+1) and 3% Green (-1).
The model suggested that the Conservatives would not hold on to a single seat north of Lincolnshire while the party would also lose all constituencies it currently holds in London and conceding many in the South West to the Lib Dems.
The research predicted that the SNP would gain an extra seven seats, leaving the party with all but four of the 59 Westminster parliamentary seats in Scotland and that the Lib Dem representation at its highest level since 2010.
The poll follows Savanta’s MRP analysis, commissioned by LabourList and carried out ahead of Labour’s conference in September, in which the pollster found a 12-point lead for the opposition party. The latest results, published today, found a 20-point lead.
Commenting today, political research director at Savanta Chris Hopkins said: “Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12-point lead the poll gave the Labour Party during their conference.
“Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.”
He expressed the need for caution, however, warning that “many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed Red Wall, still indicate a 40% or higher chance of remaining Conservative”.
“While that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model,” he added.
Savanta interviewed 6,237 British adults aged 18+ online between December 2nd and 5th this year. Data were compiled in a MRP model by Electoral Calculus. Full data tables are available here.