Labour by-election win ups the pressure on Sunak to prove his electoral value

Labour’s Ashley Dalton has won the West Lancashire by-election, increasing the party’s vote share by 10.2 percentage points. Dalton – who formerly worked in local government – won 62.3% of the vote and a majority of 8,326, in Labour’s best result in the seat’s history. The Tories, by contrast, saw a 10.9-point slump in their vote share. Their candidate Mike Prendergast received 5,742 votes – in the worst result the Conservative Party has ever recorded in the constituency. In her acceptance speech in the early hours of this morning, Dalton said: “Tonight, the people of West Lancashire constituency have spoken on behalf of the country. They’ve sent a message to this Conservative government. They do not have confidence in them to govern or the Prime Minister to lead.” She declared: “The people of West Lancashire have put their trust in Keir Starmer’s Labour. We’ve provided hope – a hope that we can build a better Britain, which means a better Lancashire.”

Labour’s victory in West Lancashire is its third by-election hold in as many months. In December, the party retained City of Chester and Stretford and Urmston with 11.6-point and 9.3-point increases on its vote share at the 2019 election, respectively. Though all three are relatively safe seats for Labour, the double digit fall in the Tories’ vote share at each by-election is evidence that the much-touted ‘Rishi bounce’ is still yet to materialise. Speaking to Sky News following the result, Dalton argued that the Tories “no longer have that mandate to govern”, adding: “The message that has come tonight from the British people is that time is up for this Conservative government and we do need a general election.”

Sunak has now overseen his party’s worst ever result in West Lancashire and its worst performance in the City of Chester in nearly two centuries. The rumours that the 1922 committee are considering a rule change to allow a no confidence vote in Sunak if the local elections go poorly for the Tories seem somewhat unbelievable so soon into his premiership – and after the chaotic pass the parcel of the Conservative leadership we saw last year. But, with colleagues looking ahead to the locals and on to the next general election, the pressure is mounting on Sunak to show that he is of electoral value to the party as leader. West Lancashire was his third major electoral test and will only lead to further questions.

In what may be spun as good news for the Tories, the Office for National Statistics’ latest figures show the UK narrowly avoided falling into recession in 2022. According to ONS estimates, the economy saw zero growth in the final quarter of last year. A technical recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has claimed the figures show the UK economy’s “underlying resilience” though he admitted: “We are not out of the woods.” On the broadcast round this morning, shadow economic secretary to the Treasury Tulip Siddiq noted that the statistics mean the UK has “technically” avoided recession but stressed that “the truth is, it’s a very bad news story for our country”, with the economy having been “stagnant for the best part of last year”.