The key voters Scottish Labour needs to win big – and how to reach them

You could almost hear the eyelid muscles of Scottish Labour activists straining last week as we stared at the results of the YouGov MRP poll that had just been published. Don’t let the eyelids shut. Keep those eyes open. Don’t blink or it might go away.

But no, it was most definitely real. The YouGov model showed Labour winning up to 23 seats in Scotland, as the SNP looked to being beaten back across the central belt (political belts are better than political walls, trust me!)

Not only would that result show a resurgence in Scottish Labour itself, but it would make Keir Starmer’s own path to No 10 Downing Street that much easier.

The glow has remained, rightly tempered by the message of Anas Sarwar that the only poll that will matter is on election day – a day Scotland and the UK needs to come as soon as possible!

The other note of caution from the YouGov poll was the tight margin projected in many of those 23 seats.  

This highlights the need to keep fighting for every vote, from every household.  The margin between ten Scottish seats and 25 or even 30 is tiny but elections are decided on such knife-edges.

The concentration of marginals in Scotland also means it will be more important than ever that we win positive support from voters. It is not enough simply for the Tories and SNP to lose, we must win and I don’t think we are quite there.  Yet.

For example, the seat I am fighting, Dunfermline and West Fife, showed a margin of just 5% and that was towards the middle or high end of winning margins, with some under 1%.  This seat lies in the new heartlands of Scotland, with young aspirational professionals on low to middle incomes perhaps in their first home, working hard to make ends meet.  

To truly win this vital demographic voters to our side with enthusiasm, we will have to overcome a cynicism that has resulted from SNP failure. A feeling that if they couldn’t do it for them, what makes us think we can.

Voters might be realising that for the last 17 years, the SNP has painted a vision for the future in watercolours, easily washed away by the latest Scottish shower, dreich morning drizzle or sharp evening Haar.  

But for us to turn those 1% margins in to 10% margins, we must show that we share the desire of voters for a positive future for Scotland. That we want Scotland to be aspirational, ambitious and filled with opportunities for them, their friends, their families, and their community.

What will win over those swing voters in the mass of Scottish marginals is showing them that when the Labour Party paints its vision for a positive future for Scotland, we will using something a lot more durable.

We must convince them we can make permanent changes and show them what will be delivered for Scotland by having two governments working for them, rather than against each other.  

If we are to achieve that, we must be realistic, yes, but not bashful about the scale of our ambition. Places like Dunfermline can succeed by advancing what we are known for, be that defence engineering, manufacturing and maintenance, heritage and tourism or professional services.

The last Labour government saved the Rosyth shipyard and it remains the largest single employer in the constituency, with diverse and secure work for both construction and maintenance of military and civilian shipping.

Contrast that success with the massive empty site of the former Longannet Generating Station at the other end of the constituency, decommissioned in 2016 with the Tories and SNP in power and with no plans for its future use.

It is an ideal site for investment through the industrial strategy of an incoming Labour government, seeking to create thousands of jobs in the green economy. An opportunity to show the difference a Labour government can make.

This is the kind of contrast we must strike in Dunfermline and marginal seats across Scotland, tangible improvements that match the ambition of communities and will deliver opportunities for people to fulfil their aspirations.

If we can achieve that then on the Friday morning after a general election, the only thing our eyes should have to worry about is being a bit bleary and bloodshot!