Operation Mid Beds: Inside Labour’s audacious bid for a Tory crown jewel

Out on the doorstep in Mid Bedfordshire, two things become quickly apparent.

The first is that the voters there are very well informed; close to every other “I’m just calling about the by-election” our canvassers dish-out is met with a “but she hasn’t resigned yet!”.

The sitting Conservative MP Nadine Dorries announced she would be resigning “with immediate effect” on June 9th. Dorries’ interpretation of “immediate effect” is, however, clearly an uncharacteristically liberal one: she has not yet done so, stating she won’t until she can get answers as to why she has not received a peerage.

The second thing you quickly pick up is that peerage or no peerage, many residents of Mid Bedfordshire truly hate their MP.

A man I canvass tells me that she might have done a “little girl act” on I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here (she appeared, while an MP, in 2012), but in reality he thinks she is a “hard-faced b****”. Distasteful perhaps, but the strength of feeling is clear.

Another member of my canvassing team talks to a woman who airs a wide variety of complaints about contemporary Britain’s lack of “racial purity”, ultimately concluding that it would have been better if Germany had won the Second World War. She was mulling over whether Labour or the Liberal Democrats were the smarter choice for her anti-Tory tactical vote.

According to polling in the Telegraph, the smartest home for the anti-Tory tactical vote, Nazi or otherwise, is with Labour’s Alistair Strathern.

The ‘ideal son in law’ candidate

Strathern is local to the area, and canvassers are briefed on where he went to school, clearly with an eye to attacks from the opposition that he’s been parachuted in.

A councillor in London and a former maths teacher now working on climate policy for the Bank of England, Strathern moved back to the area after being selected.

Personable, presentable and always in shirt sleeves, Strathern is now out on the doorstep all day every day, coming across with a clean cut enthusiasm that one imagines matches the retired Mid Bedfordshire residents’ image of their ideal son-in-law.

It’s clearly paying off, as the poll has him winning with 28% of the vote. “It’s great to be part of such an exciting campaign where we’ve been receiving a really positive response from residents on the doorstep who are fed up of being taken for granted by the Tories”, he tells me.

What a great day of campaigning in Turvey yesterday! Not only was I joined by my incredible mother but I also bumped into lots of old school friends on the doors 🌹 pic.twitter.com/uH6RLLe04P

— Alistair Strathern (@alistrathern) July 12, 2023

The Conservative candidate, Festus Akinbusoye, is the area’s sitting police and crime commissioner; he is also, according to a tweet from the MP, Nadine Dorries’ “great friend”; the recent poll figures him at 24%.

The Liberal Democrat Emma Holland-Lindsay,  head of public affairs at the Women’s Institute and a councillor on Central Bedfordshire council, takes 15%.

Complicating matters is independent candidate Gareth Mackey, who is polling at a respectable 19% (although out on the doorsteps, only one person tells me they intend to cast a ballot for him).

John Major’s rural England?

I start my day out on the doorsteps first in Harlington, one of the safest Tory areas in the constituency, before heading over to the neighbouring village of Toddington.

When John Major talked about long shadows on county cricket grounds, warm beer and old maids bicycling to Holy Communion through the morning mist, one imagines he was picturing Toddington as he did so.

At the Conservatives’ electoral nadir in 1997, the party enjoyed a healthy 7,000 majority in Mid Bedfordshire; it is not natural Labour territory (something which the discreet nature of the Labour branding on the posters and leaflets we distribute indicates the party is keenly aware of) but there is nonetheless plenty of reason to be optimistic about our chances this time round.

What a weekend it was in Mid Beds! From scenic open gardens to non-stop summer bashes and local fun days, I loved every moment spent with our incredible community. I’m so thrilled to call Mid Beds home and be part of such a vibrant, tight-knit community. #Ali4MidBeds pic.twitter.com/gazMalMA0B

— Alistair Strathern (@alistrathern) July 4, 2023

The story is the same in both villages, and, I am told, across the constituency: while a handful of people inform me of their intention to vote Conservative, the most common reaction is dissatisfaction with the area’s current representative, and with the state of things more broadly.

Sleaze, the NHS and the cost of living crisis come up. The constituency has one of the highest rates of home ownership in the country; while normally home ownership is reflective of less favourable terrain for Labour, the party is hoping that the continued mortgage rates crisis will take its toll at the ballot box, as well as Rishi Sunak’s failure to “stop the boats”.

Only Labour can beat the Tories here

More voters than might have been expected pin their colours to the Labour mast (“I’ll be voting for Keir Starmer at the general election”, one man tells me decisively), while others are unsure where they’ll take their unhappiness with the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats are hoping to repeat their by-election performances in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham and Tiverton and Honerton, where good operations turned unhappiness with the government into liberal gains.

It’s altogether less clear that the Lib Dems are primed to take this seat, however, which voted to leave and where Labour has clocked in second at the last three elections (UKIP even pushed the Lib Dems to third place in 2015).

Mid Bedfordshire By-Election Voting Intention:

LAB: 28% (+6)
CON: 24% (-36)
IND: 19% (New)
LDM: 15% (+2)
RFM: 10% (New)

Via @OpiniumResearch, TBC.
Changes w/ GE2019.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) July 2, 2023

In previous by-elections, a clear assessment was made that Labour would soft peddle their campaigns in the hope of a Tory defeat; the same call has clearly not been made in Mid Bedfordshire, where a significant and well-resourced campaign operation is already underway, and is likely to pick up steam once the competitive by-elections in Uxbridge and Selby wrap up (in one direction or another) on the 20th (a big campaign day is planned for the 22nd).

Strathern makes clear that Labour isn’t taking anything for granted, but notes that on the doorstep, “former Lib Dem and Green voters increasingly recognising that, as the polls are showing, we are the best tactical choice to beat the Conservatives locally”.

The by-election that’s not yet a by-election

With an unusually strong candidate and a groundswell of anti-Tory sentiment, Labour has the best crack at this Tory heartland seat it is ever likely to get.

The question, then, is when exactly this by-election will be: the strategic move for someone wishing to cause damage to Rishi Sunak would be to hold the by-election in the run-up to Tory party conference, but it’s probably wrong to impute strategic thinking to Nadine Dorries.

Good morning Flitwick!

Morning leaflet round finished. Now off to join some of the teams and @alistrathern to meet residents across Mid Bedfordshire.

Residents here are being punished by the Tory mortgage bombshell and know Labour has the only credible plan to fix it. pic.twitter.com/dSzqJHa4M0

— Peter Kyle MP (@peterkyle) June 27, 2023

As Byline Times and others have pointed out, there is also significant financial incentive for Dorries to hang on until the general election.

As the task she has set herself (doing her own research viz. lack of peerage) is not an achievable one, she has both motive and alibi for doing so. Staying after pledging to resign will not endear Dorries to her already unhappy constituents, but my time on the doorstep suggests that ship may have sailed. Now we wait.