Will mortgage pain or the manifesto do more for Labour’s election prospects?

Good morning. LabourList has got hold of a leaked list of all the amendments policy chiefs are recommending to the party’s draft policy programme. The document is due to be finalised at a final national policy forum (NPF) meeting later this month, though even then it doesn’t guarantee inclusion in the manifesto. The amendments vary from a push against smoking to a push against the SNP, with Scottish Labour members pushing for Labour to highlight not just Conservative but nationalist failures in government. One interesting cut would remove reference to “endemic low pay, insecurity and lack of progression” in care, hospitality and retail, as such a claim could endanger Labour’s efforts to be “demonstrably the party of business”.

Speaking of business, the Bank of England has released its financial stability report, which makes gloomy reading for mortgage holders and more general existers too. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves has said: “Today’s forecast from the Bank of England showing the typical household will pay £220 more a month on their mortgage payments demonstrates again the painful hit on families from the Tory mortgage bombshell.” Reeves, along with Shadow Levelling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy, will meet mortgage providers in Westminster this afternoon to discuss the ongoing crisis. It’ll be interesting to see how far mortgage misery boosts Labour’s already-strong poll leads in the months to come, and whether ultimately “the economy, stupid” does more for its election prospects than the party’s actual manifesto.

Fabians talk levelling-up

Also out today is a new report from our friends at the Fabian Society about the smart way to approach levelling up. Almost half of jobs growth since 2010 was in London and the South East, the report finds, while just 2% was in the North East. It suggests growth comes with its own downsides though, with one million people in London in poverty due to housing costs in an “overheating” capital. The report comes with endorsements from metro mayors Sadiq Khan and Andy Burnham, who say it “clearly sets out how our North-South divide is no accident but a direct product of Britain’s over-centralised political system”.

Selections: Bristol, Bridgend, Redcar

In selection news, the full shortlist for the new seat of Bristol North East is now clear. There are three names on it – Marvin Rees, Damian Egan and local councillor Leigh Ingham – but most expect this to be a battle of the mayors, between Bristol mayor Rees and Lewisham mayor (but Bristol native) Egan. On the numbers – or at least the number of union endorsements – Rees would seem to have the upper hand.

While we might not yet know who’ll contest Bristol North East, after last night we do know who will contest Redcar: former MP Anna Turley was selected to fight the seat for Labour. Turley, who changed her Twitter bio to read “free” after losing her seat in 2019, has worked as a consultant for the gambling industry and chaired the North East Child Poverty Commission and the Labour Local Government Campaigns Co-operative since leaving parliament. In 2019, Turley won a libel case against Unite and the blog Skwawkbox.

In Wales, the current Labour MP for Ogmore, Chris Elmore, will fight the newly constituted seat of Bridgend. Michael Crick reports that 26% of Elmore’s current seat falls within the new constituency. Elmore is a Labour whip. Bridgend in its current form is held by the Conservative Jamie Wallis. And in London, TheTimes reports that journalist Paul Mason has not ruled out seeking Labour selection in Islington North, where Jeremy Corbyn is widely expected to run as an independent. It is understood Mason has no specific plan to target the seat, however.

Green new deal protests

And, finally, the campaign group Green New Deal Rising, which disrupted Keir Starmer’s ‘mission’ speech last Thursday, have announced they will be kicking off a series of protests outside Labour MPs’ constituency offices on Friday morning. Among those targeted will be Shadow Scotland Secretary Ian Murray, with one of those intending to protest his office saying: “He has previously written in support of a Green New Deal, so if he’s serious about tackling the climate crisis we need him to stand up and speak out against the Labour leadership’s current backsliding.”

Murray told LabourList the next Labour government would have “the most ambitious green plans that will turn the UK into a green superpower”.