Home

Live by-election updates, reaction and analysis of Labour’s two huge wins

Labour has made two historic by-election gains from the Conservatives, overturning huge majorities overnight in what had been seen as safe Tory seats.

Sarah Edwards won in Tamworth and Alistair Strathern in Mid Bedfordshire, with both candidates saying voters had made clear it was “time for change” and Strathern saying it reflected Labour moving “to where the country is”. In our morning email today, we round up five key takeaways from the results.

We’ll be bringing you the latest news, reaction and analysis of the results throughout this morning:

5:00pm: Labour Together: Results ‘confirm Labour can win in all types of seat’

Labour Together’s Christabel Cooper has written a piece for LabourList on the by-elections, arguing that the results “point to Labour being able to win in not only the seats it lost in 2019, but in the bellwether constituencies that Labour failed to capture in 2010, 2015 or 2017, which would return Labour to power”.

She wrote: “These results confirm that Labour can win in all types of seat – in Brexit-voting towns like Tamworth, in more rural areas with fairly low levels of deprivation like Selby and Ainsty and in relatively affluent places like Mid Bedfordshire.

“None of these seats are Labour targets. None of them are necessary for Labour to gain a very solid majority.”

That’s all from our liveblog today – thanks to all for following!

2:10pm: Streeting says by-election results “remarkable given where Labour was in 2019”

On the BBC’s Politics Live programme earlier this afternoon, Wes Streeting argued that the by-election results are “remarkable given where Labour was in 2019”.

Asked whether he thinks Labour is on its way to a landslide, the Shadow Health Secretary said: “We’re certainly not complacent… Frankly, we’ve been round this block too many times in Labour’s history, so you won’t get an ounce of complacency from me or from Keir.”


11:50am: Both by-election results in top ten Tory-to-Labour swings since 1945

UK in a Changing Europe’s Sophie Stowers has been having a busy morning. She’s also highlighted that both of last night’s by-election results make it into the top ten Tory-to-Labour by-election swings since 1945 (though she noted how low the turnout was, particularly in Tamworth).


11:45am: People are fed up of Tories and Tamworth result shows it, new MP says

In Tamworth, Starmer and new MP Sarah Edwards have been addressing local activists.

Edwards declared “this is absolutely incredible”, continuing: “We’ve worked incredibly hard. I’m very very proud of all of the team and the campaign team and everybody that’s turned out for Labour and said that they want change.

“It is an absolutely amazing flag to be flying. People are fed up of the Conservatives and they have proved that here in Tamworth by voting for a fresh start.”

Starmer thanked activists and members, saying they had done an “incredible job” and adding: “People told me that it was not possible to win this seat in this by-election, and you absolutely smashed it. What a result. What a piece of history.”

He continued: “This constituency has spoken now loud and clear. No more of the Tories, yes please to Labour. And there were Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote Labour. And that is because they are fed up with the decline and despairing at the party they used to voted for.”

11:15am: Tamworth was in top 10% of heaviest Leave-voting constituencies

Tamworth was in the top 10% of heaviest Leave-voting constituencies in 2016, UK in a Changing Europe’s Sophie Stowers has highlighted.


10:35am: Starmer describes double by-election win as “historic”

Starmer has told Sky News: “I’m very pleased. These are extraordinary results. To have won either of these by-elections would have been extraordinary. To win both of them is historic.”

The Labour leader continued: “Two historic results overnight here in these by-elections. In Selby, in Yorkshire, we also won by a 20% swing. In Rutherglen, we won by a 20% swing.

“So I think what we’ve shown is, across the country, where we’re able to make our positive case, people are now wanting to turn their back on 13 years of decline and vote for that positive, changed Labour Party and a story for the future.”


10:05am: Fabians: Labour doubles number of rural seats with Mid Beds and Selby wins

Labour has doubled the number of rural seats in the parliamentary Labour Party by winning Mid Beds and Selby and Ainsty, according to senior researcher at the Fabian Society Ben Cooper.

“This is a massive turnaround from 2019 when just one in five rural voters backed Labour. There is more to do, but Labour is becoming the ‘party of the countryside’.”


9:55am: Lib Dems claim efforts in Mid Beds “instrumental” in defeating Tories

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper told TalkTV this morning that her party was  “clearly disappointed” not to win either seat but noted that the party had doubled its vote share in Mid Beds and “won over the support of thousands and thousands of lifelong Conservative voters”.

She argued that the Lib Dems efforts in Mid Beds were “instrumental” in beating the Tories, adding: “I hope very much at the next general election our efforts will be instrumental in defeating the Conservatives.”

On the subject of electoral pacts with Labour at the next election, Cooper said: “Absolutely not. There won’t be any pacts, there haven’t been any pacts. There won’t be any at all. We don’t need pacts. I think in most cases, voters can see very clearly who the key challengers are.”

9:30am: Tories face “serious prospect” of losing the next general election “heavily”

Polling expect John Curtice told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme earlier this morning: “I think it’s certainly reasonable to argue… that the Conservative Party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”

Curtice continued: “What we are seeing in these by-elections last night are results and swings to the Labour Party, together with that in Selby three months ago, commensurate with what happened in by-elections before the 1997 general election. And that is the crucial takeaway.

“These are exceptional swings. They’re exceptional swings to the opposition. And when they last happened, the government did lose very badly.”

9:15am: McFadden declares by-election results are “not normal”

Speaking to Sky News earlier this morning, McFadden said: “These results are not normal. This was in one case the biggest Tory majority to be overturned in a by-election, beating previous records.”

He noted that the four recent by-elections in Selby, Rutherglen, Mid Beds and Tamworth had all seen swings of around 20% to Labour and argued that, in Mid Beds, the party had “never really had a presence before”.

“These are big, big results,” he told viewers. “But I do stress we still know the size of our task. We’re conscious of the size of our task. And that the trust of the public is a fragile and precious thing.”


8.45am: Starmer says Labour is the “party of the future” but ‘I don’t want to get carried away’

Starmer has just addressed a rally in Mid Beds, thanking supporters for “such a hard fight”, a three-way race where “every single conversation” mattered.

“This is…an incredible morning….It is clear that voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government…they are crying out for change, positive change that the Labour party can bring them, positive change that a changed Labour party can bring them.”

Starmer called Labour the “party of the future, the party of national renewal”.

He then told the BBC that both results “history in the making” and mark a “game-changer”. But he added: “We take it humbly…we’ve still got to go on from here earning the vote across the country….I don’t want to get carried away, because I know there’s a long way to go.”
 

8.34am: Starmer visits Mid Bedfordshire to mark win

Starmer is expected to speak shortly alongside Alistair Strathern in Martston Moretain, Mid Beds.

Stood in front of new Labour ‘Let’s Get Britain’s Future Back’ placards, plastered with the Union Jack, Strathern just said “no-one is ever going to be taking us for granted here in Mid Bedfordshire ever again”.

He said Starmer had “had the confidence to say there would be no no-go areas” for Labour at the start of the campaign, and “changed the Labour party so we’re in step with the values of the people of Mid Bedfordshire”.

8.15am: What if the results were replicated nationally…?

Election Maps UK shared a similar graphic for the Mid Beds result, which would see 480 Labour seats, 108 Lib Dem seats and 20 Conservative seats. Obviously neither seat’s demographics are a clear reflection of those of the country at large…

8.05am: Tories’ ‘worst by-election night ever’

The BBC’s political editor Chris Mason told Radio 4 political commentary often exaggerated events, but Labour had done “outstandingly well” and the Tories had done “dismally…one of their worst by-election nights ever”.

The result in Mid Bedfordshire breaks the record for the largest numerical majority ever overturned in a by-election, he added.

7.45am: Tory chair claims poor turnout to blame

Tory chairman Greg Hands put on a brave face on BBC Breakfast just now, calling results “disappointing” but blamed the results on previous Tory voters “staying at home”, with poor turnout.

“We didn’t really see any increase in Labour’s vote,” he claimed. The presenter pointed out those who did turn out “voted Labour”.

7.35am: McFadden says elections ‘not just a matter’ of low turnout – but Labour ‘can’t rest on laurels’

Asked by the BBC about low voter turnout, shadow minister Pat McFadden has said the by-election wins were “not one-offs”, given the Selby and Rutherglen by-elections. “People are turning to Labour, it’s not just a matter of staying home”.

“We certainly can’t afford to rest on our laurels….Trust is such a precious and fragile thing in politics. Last night was two really important steps, but w’ve still got along way to go and we’re under no illusions about the size of the task ahead of us.”

He said he would “be the person” thanking party staff at its headquarters on Monday and telling them to enjoy the moment, but “there’s still a great deal left to do”.

7.30am: McFadden says wins reflect ‘changed party’ on defence, the economy and ‘not over-promising’

Shadow chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden just told BBC Breakfast it had been a “fantastic night” in two seats considered “very safe” for the Tories – with Tamworth the 57th safest Tory seat after the 2019 election.

He called results a “signal of the change that’s taken place in politics and towards a much changed Labour party”.

“Our attitude on defence and foreign affairs has changed significantly; we are very clear about the importance of financial stability before everything else; this is not a Labour party that is over-promising.

“It is promising change and a fresh start and a step-by-step move towards rebuilding the country after the failure of the Conservative years.”

7.20am: Tamworth and Mid Bed results in full:

See a full breakdown of the results and watch Sarah Edwards’ speech in Tamworth here, and see Alistair Strathern’s speech and the results breakdown here.

Tags: By-election / Labour / Poll / Keir Starmer / SARAH / Tamworth / Mid Bedfordshire / Mid Beds / Alistair Strathern / Sarah Edwards / Exit poll /
Subscribe to our daily email

More from LabourList

DONATE HERE

We provide our content free, but providing daily Labour news, comment and analysis costs money. Small monthly donations from readers like you keep us going. To those already donating: thank you.

If you can afford it, can you join our supporters giving £10 a month?

And if you’re not already reading the best daily round-up of Labour news, analysis and comment…

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR DAILY EMAIL