Full Rutherglen by-election results breakdown after Shanks’ “seismic” win

Labour’s Michael Shanks has been declared the winner of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, becoming only Labour’s second current MP in Scotland.

Shanks, a local teacher and charity worker, won the by-election with 58.6% of the vote and a majority of 9,446 ahead of the Scottish National Party’s Katy Loudon in second place and the Tory candidate Thomas Kerr in third. According to BBC News, the by-election saw a swing from the SNP to Labour of 20.4%.

Commenting following the result, Shanks said: “It’s truly the honour of my life to be elected to serve the people of Rutherglen and Hamilton West.”

He continued: “The message from tonight is a resoundingly clear one. We’ve had more than enough of managed decline, more than enough of division, more than enough of distracted, chaotic government. It’s time for change. That change can’t come fast enough.

“But one thing is now clear. There’s no part of this country where Labour can’t win. Labour can kick the Tories out of Downing Street next year and deliver the change that people want and this country so badly needs.

“Tonight is one part of that journey. Tomorrow, our fight continues, and my work to represent you as the MP of this fantastic community begins.”

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

LAB: 58.6% (+24.1)
SNP: 27.6% (-16.6)
CON: 3.9% (-11.1)
LDEM: 2.9% (-2.2)
GRN: 2.0% (+2.0)
REF: 1.3% (+1.3)

Turnout: 37.2%
Labour GAIN from SNP

Keir Starmer described the result as “seismic”, adding: “People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it.”

The Labour leader said: “Voters across Scotland and across Britain want a government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.

“They want to move on from two SNP and Tory governments that offer only more division, more chaos and more infighting. The country deserves a government firmly on their side and focused on their priorities – and Labour will deliver that for them.”

The by-election was triggered after 15% of voters in the constituency signed a recall petition following the former MP Margaret Ferrier’s suspension from the House of Commons for breaching Covid rules. This surpassed the 10% needed to call a by-election. Ferrier did not stand in today’s contest.

Ferrier won Rutherglen and Hamilton West for the SNP in 2019 with majority of 5,230 votes, taking the seat from Labour’s Ged Killen, who had won it from Ferrier at the previous election by just 265 votes. Prior to Ferrier’s first election in 2015, the seat had been held by Labour since its creation in 2005.

Today’s vote was seen as a key test of Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour Party’s progress, who will look to make significant gains from the SNP at the next general election. Speaking ahead of the result, Sarwar said he hoped the result would be a good “springboard” into the next election.

A huge congratulations to our fantastic candidate Michael Shanks!

You led a positive campaign focused on the priorities of people across Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

We know you’ll do an amazing job representing this constituency.

Scottish Labour – the change Scotland needs. pic.twitter.com/AoDumtjaGS

— Scottish Labour (@ScottishLabour) October 6, 2023

Polling expert John Curtice argued this week that Labour winning the seat narrowly as it did in 2017 would be a “bit of a disappointment”. He told Politico that the party could say “job done” if it managed to turn the SNP’s ten-point lead in 2019 into a ten-point Labour lead.

He added: “If it were to be much more than that, then this really would be potentially quite a spectacular result, and we’d be asking ourselves whether the Labour Party really could compete with the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland.”

In an interview with LabourList in early September, deputy Scottish Labour leader Jackie Baillie said: “A win in Rutherglen means that Keir Starmer can win in every part of the country.

“That the Labour Party’s recovery in Scotland doesn’t stop at Rutherglen, doesn’t even stop at the general election, focused though I am on that, but actually can carry us forward into the Scottish parliament elections two years after.”