Welsh Labour leadership contest: ‘Key issues that will shape the outcome’

Following the announcement a week ago that Mark Drakeford would stand down as Welsh Labour leader and First Minister, two candidates have risen rapidly to become the main contenders for the leader of Llafur Cymru.

For those among you less familiar about the politics of Wales you may be asking, who are these two men and what do they stand for?

Both men would represent firsts for Wales and the UK

With Vaughan Gething and Jeremy Miles the only two candidates to have secured enough Senedd member nominations to run to be the leader of Welsh Labour, the race is well and truly on to lead this Labour heartland. The absence of a standard bearer for the left or a woman has proved controversial, with soon-to-be former First Minister Mark Drakeford lamenting the fact women were not putting themselves forward for leadership positions over the weekend.

With Drakeford’s impending departure, the spotlight turns to Gething and Miles, each poised to make history in their own right. It would mean two potential firsts for Wales and the United Kingdom.

If Gething wins, he would become the first Black leader of any of the four nations. Gething has a history of firsts, having been the first Black president of the Welsh NUS and person of mixed race at the Welsh Trades Union Congress, not to mention the first and only Black Member of the Senedd.

In turn, Miles would become the first openly gay premier of any of the nations of the United Kingdom. Either outcome is a significant step forward for both liberation groups, particularly as Wales’ demographic profile is among the most homogenous in the British Isles.

Both have moving, difficult stories to tell about life growing up as a Black man and a gay man in Wales, tales that make for uncomfortable but important listening. Their stories speak to the depth of their drive to lead the party, and in turn the country that shamefully, on more than one occasion, made them feel unwelcome.

Gething faced an early setback in Senedd member nominations

As these two men, shaped by their unique experiences, vie for leadership, the dynamics of the contest reveal the political manoeuvres. When it comes to leadership contests, the drive they possess is clearly playing out in real time. On Monday, eyebrows raised as the majority of Labour Members of the Senedd (MSs) declared for Miles, who has been in the Senedd since 2016, whereas Gething has served since 2011.

The latter also possesses extensive ministerial experience and guided Wales, alongside Drakeford, through the Covid-19 pandemic. Gething has the greatest recall of any candidate among the general public and is the preferred leader among 2021 Senedd Labour voters according to pollsters Redfield and Wilton.

These polls are the closest we can get to the early status of the race to be leader at this stage. The results make the endorsement of Miles by the majority of Senedd members all the more surprising – particularly as Gething was perceived as a frontrunner, being a former leadership contender, health minister during the pandemic, then going on to manage another huge – by Welsh standards – department as economy minister.

With most early endorsements out of the way, the phony war is well and truly over for this stage of the contest. The deadline for Constituency Labour Party (CLP) and affiliate endorsements is January 29th, which is when the contest will become somewhat clearer. Gething will be pushing hard to get CLP endorsements following the early setback.

Miles’ lower recognisability is both a curse and a blessing

While early endorsements and public opinion polls set the stage, the internal dynamics among Labour’s 18,000 members – where Miles faces challenges due to his lower recognition – are the most important layer of the race. As any active Labour member knows, most members don’t attend constituency or branch meetings, so it is difficult to get a sense of which way members might break from CLP endorsements. How many may simply vote on the basis of name recognition when ballots come through?

The lower recognition for Miles is both a curse and a blessing as he has to fight a harder campaign to become better known, but is equally able to set out a fresher platform than opponent Gething who – having run against Drakeford for the leadership five years ago – has a longer public record to defend. More worryingly for Gething, he has been painted (somewhat unfairly) as the ‘right wing’ candidate in a party known for its famous “clear red water” (or put simply, more overtly socialist policies while in government).

Policy will be key to the campaign – including the 20mph speed limit

Against the backdrop of internal political positioning, both candidates also face urgent policy challenges, including the contentious 20mph speed limit introduction. Policy will be key to the campaign. Wales has a number of challenges budget cuts by consecutive Conservative Chancellors have either created or exacerbated. Neither candidate is in a position to be drawn into making big spending commitments.

There are also immediate matters to resolve including how to reduce waiting times in the NHS, improve education standards following poor PISA scores, not to mention transport. The controversial introduction of the 20mph default limit is weighing on Welsh Labour polling numbers, with Plaid Cymru just four points behind on the regional list vote. Far too close for comfort considering how far ahead Labour are UK-wide. 70% of Welsh voters now oppose the new limit, up from 61% prior to introduction.

Labour representatives and members are the ones who have borne the brunt of feedback on the doorstep about the hugely unpopular 20mph limit, and they will likely be looking for answers from the two contenders on the way forward. Equally controversial, though less reported, was the cancellation of the majority of roadbuilding projects by climate change ministers Lee Waters and Julie James.

Members and senior councillors I have spoken to have been finding it hard to defend both policies to their voters. Councillors are finding the squeeze on their budgets challenging in addressing the issue and switching some roads, quite necessarily in some instances, back to 30mph. At this early stage, both ministers responsible for the situation on the roads are backing Miles. It is highly unlikely both contenders will simply ditch the policy, but members will be on the lookout for some recompense for the management of the introduction of the 20mph limit and the reduction in their local community’s road investment.

The result of the race will likely end up being incredibly close

Whoever wins will be leading Welsh Labour into the next general election and Senedd elections and have a larger parliamentary party to manage if the Senedd expands from 60 to 96 members, as is currently being debated at Cardiff Bay. Moreover, the new First Minister will have further powers to manage, as crime and justice policy devolution is now likely to take place. It will require sure-footedness to ensure discipline can be maintained, as one of the most challenging periods for the Welsh Labour Party since the Welsh parliament’s creation 25 years ago continues.

Both candidates possess leadership qualities in buckets, and the result of the race will likely end up being incredibly close as members struggle to choose between two strong candidates. This may well be where the policies and the promises come to matter most.

Another thing to note is, because Wales’ block grant has been squeezed by 13 years of Conservative governments to the tune of £3.5bn a year, the new First Minister will become Wales’ chief lobbyist to an incoming Labour administration at Downing Street. It means that difficult conversations will need to take place with a Labour Prime Minister and fiscally restrained Chancellor to claw back funding reductions. That First Minister will need to get a deal that can convincingly resolve issues in Welsh schools, hospitals and social care, having been cast adrift by no less than seven Conservative Chancellors since 2010.

Questions over the future of Labour’s agreement with Plaid Cymru

One final thing worth noting: the Labour government in Cardiff Bay is currently engaged in a cooperation agreement with Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, something an eagle-eyed member of Welsh public affairs consultancy Deryn pointed out ends in late 2024.

Given Labour is short of a majority by just one vote in the Senedd, and have two years to go before new elections, could the two candidates be pressed on whether they will sign up to another agreement under the new Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, or with the sole Lib Dem MS, Jane Dodds? Or indeed create some sort of confidence-and-supply arrangement?

Whatever the outcome, this election will shape Welsh Labour’s position and strategy in Wales for the next decade. Insights into how the candidates’ differing visions might shape the party’s future will become apparent in the coming weeks and months of the campaign.

The rank and file are in the privileged position of not only choosing a new party leader, but the next First Minister and, thanks to further devolved powers, one who will have a bigger impact on the future of Wales than any who came before. The stakes for Labour members, as well as the two candidates for First Minster, could not be higher. Just how much could who they are and what they stand for define Wales’ future?