YouGov MRP poll: Full list of 203 Labour gains if general election held tomorrow

The pollster YouGov has released a new MRP survey projecting Labour would win a Tony Blair-style landslide of more than 400 seats nationwide if a general election were held tomorrow.

The poll of more than 18,000 voters last month, using well-regarded multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) techniques, has been mapped out to predict constituency-level results if there were an immediate election.

More than 200 Labour gains are expected compared to the 2019 general election results (so not factoring in the by-elections since), including 176 from the Conservatives and 27 from the Scottish National Party – with a full list, sorted by region, published below. You can also see LabourList‘s tracker of Labour parliamentary candidates selected so far here.

Some 25 Labour gains are projected in the West Midlands, the highest of any region, followed by 24 in the North West, 23 in the South East, 22 in the East Midlands and 21 in the East of England.

The projected 154-seat majority, with 403 seats nationally, would leave Labour leader Keir Starmer close to Labour’s first election victory under Tony Blair’s leadership, the 418 seats won in 1997.

YouGov reports: “The most prominent casualty could be chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who is currently fractionally behind the Lib Dems in his Godalming and Ash seat. Science secretary Michelle Donelan is also currently trailing the Lib Dems in her Melksham and Devizes seat, and Michael Gove is just one point ahead in his Surrey Heath seat.”

It says that in Scotland Labour would “comfortably” be the largest party in terms of seats won north of the border, with 28 seats to the SNP’s 19 and five each for the Lib Dems and Tories.

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Labour is taking nothing for granted and we will continue working tirelessly to earn voters’ trust. Change is possible and Labour is ready to deliver it, with our plan to make work pay, cut bills, renew public services and strengthen our economy.”

Reform UK’s vote share is expected to be highest in Barnsley North and Hartlepool, but they sit around 20 percentage points behind Labour as projected winners. They are also expected to do well in predicted Labour wins Doncaster North, Barnsley South, Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley, Normanton and Hemsworth, Ashfield, Rawmarsh and Conisbrough.

YouGov suggest the Greens would hold in Brighton Pavillion, but narrowly fall short of taking Bristol Central from Labour shadow cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire.