Dudley: Where Labour’s local campaign began, and it cannot afford to lose

Labour notched up 22 more councils overall at last year’s English local elections, while the Conservatives lost control of a net 48 local authorities.

But for all the wind in Labour’s sails on polling day, the Tories only control 18 of the 107 councils being contested in this year’s local elections – leaving the opposition with less scope for eye-catching council scalps and big headline number shifts this time round.

It might be one reason Ellie Reeves, deputy national co-ordinator told LabourList this week in an interview this week that Labour was less focused on overall numbers nationally, and more focused on precisely where it is picking up gains – with a particular focus on key general election battlegrounds.

She gave a handful of such a seat which Labour would be “looking at” for progress, and Dudley was one of them.

Dudley: An important test for Labour

Keir Starmer chose the Black Country town to launch Labour’s local election campaign a month ago – suggesting the party fancies its chances here.

It would be an important symbolic victory for Labour nationally to win control in Dudley, given former Prime Minister Boris Johnson chose it for a major speech on “levelling up” in 2020. Starmer even held his launch event at the same venue, the town’s Institute of Technology.

LabourList analysis of YouGov MRP polling suggests the new Dudley constituency, albeit with different boundaries to the council, could also be among the key seats Labour needs to win to gain even a majority of one.

There is more scope for significant change in Dudley than in most years and most other contests this May as, unusually, every seat is up for grabs. Labour, which had control of the council until 2019, currently has 26 seats, with the Conservatives on 41.

A recent study by the Local Government Intelligence Unit noted that “Labour has been steadily winning seats in the most recent elections, so this is definitely one to watch”.

Some Dudley voters will ‘never vote Tory again’

Caroline Reid, a councillor in St James’s ward, which includes part of the town centre, told LabourList on a recent visit that many voters had now simply “had enough” of the Conservatives and really wanted change, with the cost of living and the housing crisis key on the doorstep.

Many voters who “didn’t trust us with the economy” under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership in 2019 are now “coming back to Labour”, according to Lucy Caldicott, Labour’s defeated Dudley South candidate in 2019, now working on Richard Parker’s West Midlands campaign.

Some are saying they will “never going to vote Conservative again”.

Hollowed-out town centre and industry

Reid’s fellow ward councillor Cathryn Bayton said there had been a “general decline” of the town centre too in an area that historically prided itself as a market town, and voters’ disappointment was one of the “main priorities we’re picking up”.

She accused the Tories of not doing enough work with employers to build a pipeline of skills, or on issues like fly-tipping and night-time safety in the town centre.

Several shoppers shared their frustration at the town’s retail offerings when approached by LabourList, and one market trader lamented levels of footfall.

Insufficient town centre investment under the local Conservatives comes on top of decades of “post-industrial decline” in the town, with a major steelworks closing in the 1980s, Caldicott said.

Starmer touched on such themes in his speech, attracting headlines with his condemnation of Johnson for “preying on [the] hopes” of voters with levelling up slogans.

“Of course a town like Dudley wanted that hope to be real…that project knowingly spoke to what towns like this have lost, the way of life that disappeared when the factories or pits closed. The community, the security, the ‘chest-out’ pride that grows when you are certain your contribution is respected…Over the years it’s a pride that’s become a little less sure of the ground beneath its feet.”

The Labour group hopes to do more to bolster local pride through cultural events, as well as “inclusive” use of the Black Country flag.

Meanwhile Labour’s regional metro mayoral candidate Richard Parker has vowed to have a mayoral “base” in the Black Country, and told LabourList recently this part of region had been “overlooked” and “needs more focus” for building prosperity and opportunity. He has also made jobs, apprenticeships and public control of buses central to his campaign to dislodge Tory Andy Street.

Dudley ‘by no means naturally a Labour area’

One voter waiting for a bus in Dudley town centre, Gordon Winwood, told LabourList he had always voted Conservative, but did not plan to vote for them this year – condemning their record on immigration. Yet said he was more likely to not vote than back Labour, however.

Dudley is “by no means naturally a Labour area,” according to Bayton.

“Dudley traditionally was a town of heavy industry. A lot of people did quite well financially for the jobs they did; they were able to buy their own homes, and because of that there’s been certain areas where there’s a high level of Conservative voters.”

Bayton said turnout is often the issue that “kills us” in Dudley, and there are worries it could be challenging for Parker too particularly with no local elections in Birmingham, but Bayton hopes Tory disillusion may mean it is a bigger problem for the governing party this year.

The councillor agreed voters were far more positive about Starmer’s leadership than Corbyn. Yet she said some still call him “boring” and might vote on “personality”, even if “I’d give everything for a bit of ‘boring’ and stability, personally”.

And while she hopes Labour will be able to win overall control, she fears there might be “some surprises” as there have been a number of independent groups “springing up”.

With Starmer explicitly saying Labour is “looking to win in Dudley”, the stakes are among the highest for any local contest this Thursday – and the results from the count will reverberate well beyond the town.

 Read more of our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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