‘Why Jamie Driscoll’s campaign should give Labour pause for thought’

With just a few days to go, the race to elect a new mayor of the North East is looking closer than Labour would like. Given the party’s national poll ratings, this contest should have been a certain Labour gain. And yet Labour’s Kim McGuinness is polling just three points ahead of Jamie Driscoll, the former-Labour now-independent mayor of the North of Tyne.

Elected as a Labour mayor in 2019, Jamie Driscoll resigned from the Party having been blocked from standing as a Labour candidate in this latest contest. Taking swipes at Conservatives and Labour in equal measure, he is running a campaign targeted squarely at taking on the establishment and fighting the party machines.

This is tapping into something real. Voters are fed up with politics as usual – a Conservative Party that is perceived as incompetent and scandal-ridden and a Labour Party that has so far failed to articulate an alternative vision.

‘There’s nothing about Starmer that inspires me’

In discussions with voters in Tynemouth and Cramlington, Alex, a suicide prevention officer, said that Rishi Sunak has “got absolutely nothing in common with the normal working person at all.” But Starmer is not doing much better. As teaching assistant Leanne put it, “there’s nothing really about him [Starmer] that inspires me.”

In a world where many voters feel that the lines between parties are increasingly blurred, some are looking for a third way. And for many, Driscoll is the answer. For Nicole, a teacher from Cramlington, Driscoll’s position as a non-partisan independent was a major draw: “I liked the fact that he’s neither Conservative or Labour.”

Because he is, to a certain extent, a protest candidate, his coalition is highly atypical. His supporters are politically diverse, drawn from all age groups, well-educated, and highly engaged.

But before diving into the details it is worth bearing in mind that many potential voters do not know that the elections are even taking place. Turnout in previous mayoral elections is often around a third, far lower than the 67% turnout in the 2019 general election. So the challenge for pollsters is not just working out who supports each candidate, but also who is going to turn out on polling day. It is far from fool-proof and there are lots of factors at play.

Driscoll’s broad church of support

From what we can tell so far, it looks like Driscoll’s coalition is a very broad church. For instance, over a quarter of his voters (26%) previously backed the Conservative Party in the 2019 general election, ‘lending’ their votes to him in much the same way as traditional Labour voters did for Boris Johnson in that same election. Driscoll is also a magnet for supporters of smaller parties, with 21% of his coalition previously having voted for either the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, or the Brexit Party.

Both candidates are of course attracting 2019 Labour voters, but there are two main differences. First, Kim McGuinness’s slice of the Labour pie is larger than Driscoll’s. The official Labour campaign is retaining 58% of those 2019 Labour voters who intend to vote in the Mayoral election. Driscoll has managed to peel off 33% of this group.

Second, the share of Labour voters backing Driscoll are disproportionately likely to have university degrees, compared to those supporting McGuinness. A majority of Driscoll’s former Labour voters (55%) went to university, whereas only 41% of the Labour voters backing McGuinness have a university degree.

Driscoll’s support also cuts across the age divide. He is currently polling at around 28% among under-35s and 38% among over-65s. This is in stark contrast to Labour’s vote in the region, which skews heavily towards younger people, and the Conservatives’ vote which is disproportionately older.

‘Driscoll benefits from more politically engaged base’

Despite widespread apathy, Jamie Driscoll is benefitting from a more politically engaged base. Of those who express a preference for Driscoll, 83% say they will certainly vote on polling day. But for those who would rather elect Kim McGuinness, only 64% say they are certain to vote for her. This suggests that the race may be heavily influenced by each candidate’s get out the vote operation.

In many respects, the key issues for both Driscoll’s and McGuinness’ supporters are the same. Voters across the North East all agree that the new mayor should focus on reducing crime and antisocial behaviour and regenerating local high streets. Similarly, everyone cares about the environment, from investing in clean energy to protecting green spaces.

What sets the two camps apart is concern over the cost of the green transition. A third (31%) of McGuinness’ voters want the Mayor to subsidise the cost of energy efficiency upgrades to people’s homes. But only 13% of Driscoll’s voters agree that it should be a priority.

Despite the North of Tyne Mayor’s harsh critique of the Labour Party dropping its £28 billion green investment pledge, his supporters are not too bothered about subsidised retrofitting. Instead, 50% of Driscoll’s voters think the Mayor should prioritise improving public transport, whereas only 29% of McGuinness’ voters say the same.

Driscoll’s coalition is motivated by a dissatisfaction with Westminster politics, which is reflected in their strong desire for further devolution. Among Driscoll’s supporters, securing more devolved powers from the UK government is seen as the fourth-most important priority for the Mayor.

No other group cares as much about devolution as Driscoll’s voters. Among those backing Kim McGuinness, this only ranks eleventh out of fifteen possible options. For many who are drawn to Driscoll, devolution is an answer to their frustrations, and they see in him a strong local champion who will fight for their interests. When shown one of Driscoll’s campaign videos, several people commented that they liked his “passion.” Marie, a childcare worker from Cramlington, thought that “he just seemed a lot more fierce and that he would put more into helping us.”

Even if Jamie Driscoll only finishes in a close second, this should give the Labour Party pause for thought. It would suggest that Keir Starmer is yet to convince the public that his party is more than just ‘not the Conservatives.’ Unless Labour can offer genuinely positive change and demonstrate the credibility to deliver on their promises, we may see more political applecarts upset this year even as they head to victory.

Read our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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