Edinburgh endgame: The seat where SNP defeat would signal Labour majority

Edinburgh has been Scottish Labour’s shining beacon of light over the last decade, hosting the party’s one remaining MP, Ian Murray, following the party’s 2015 and 2019 near-wipeout.

If polls from recent weeks and months are accurate, the next Secretary of State for Scotland could finally be joined by three other Scottish Labour MPs from Edinburgh next week as they make their way to London to join the benches of a Labour government.

Edinburgh North and Leith is Labour’s top target seat in the Scottish capital. If it falls to Labour at around 4.30am on election night, it will be one of the clearest signs yet on the night that Labour is on track to secure a majority.

LabourList analysis suggests it is one of a handful of seats where the swing required is at the very top end of what’s needed to win every one of around 120 other seats to get Labour over the 326-seat line (assuming a uniform national swing to Labour from the Tories or Scottish National Party in 2019 had that election been on new boundaries).

READ MORE: How Labour hopes to repeat Rutherglen win in Scotland’s biggest city

Tracy Gilbert is the party’s formidable candidate here. It is rare to see her without a warm smile and her infectious laugh out on the campaign trail.

Last month, nearly 150 people turned out to launch the campaign at the Leith Docker’s Club, one of the few remaining working men’s clubs in Scotland, to set the tone for the rest of the campaign. Sat proudly in the audience was Gilbert’s primary school teacher.

18 months in the making

Speaking to her just three days before the general election, the Labour candidate told me the last six weeks had been “full on”. But, the campaign has been around eighteen months in the making, with groundwork being laid before Gilbert’s selection.

“We’ve been planning this for the last eighteen months,” Tracy said. “It’s been great to see so many activists that have been so committed to delivering a Labour government for the last decade and a bit.”

READ MORE: Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

If successful, Tracy is about to represent an area which encapsulates the stark income inequality within Edinburgh – and she’s under no illusions about the challenges the next Labour government faces.

While Edinburgh is one of the most affluent parts of Scotland, with higher than average salaries and a much higher percentage of children that attend private schools than the rest of Scotland, there are pockets of serious deprivation within the North and Leith constituency.

Voters have lost ‘complete faith and trust’

Gilbert said voters tell her they feel left behind by the SNP in Holyrood and the Tories in Westminster alike.

“People feel so let down by both governments. They are really concerned about the cost of living crisis. They’re feeling disappointed that no one has stood up for them. They have lost complete faith and trust in the politicians that have been representing them.”

The campaign in North and Leith has been positive and energetic. Gilbert has been keen to focus on the Labour message, saying she has paid little attention to the SNP’s campaign.

“Our job is to send that positive message and have that positive campaign to convince them that actually, we’re not all the same and for the candidates that are standing for Labour in this election, we are very keen to deliver trust and service back into politics.”

‘I’ve lived a real life’

She has had a busy career as a local government housing officer before going on to work within the trade union movement, experience she says has given her real lived experience like the people she is seeking to represent. Growing up in a mining town just outside of Edinburgh during the 1980s, she saw the impact Thatcher’s policies had on the community.

“I’ve live a real life, I live in my community, I’ve had a real job, I understand the pressures people are facing through housing, health, education and inequality.

READ MORE: Meet Gordon McKee, the 29-year-old son of a welder vying for Glasgow South

“Edinburgh is quite an unequal city. There’s the people who have and the people who have not and the people who have not have been left behind.”

Activists say dozens of people on average are turning out for the daily campaign sessions across North and Leith, and Gilbert’s social media channels are full of smiling activists keen to be spreading the Labour message.

Labour pour resources into the fight to win seat lost in 2015

Labour in North and Leith has spent a significant amount on online advertising which, to residents in the constituency, is unsurprising.

Meanwhile on the bus I catch to my flat on the very western edge of North and Leith, I catch a glimpse of a huge advertising billboard at the Crewe Toll junction, one of the key intersections in the north west of the city, telling voters: “Vote Tracy Gilbert”.

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It’s indicative of the effort and money Labour is putting into winning the constituency back. They last held it a decade ago, with Mark Lazarowicz losing to the SNP’s Deidre Brock in 2015.

But Tracy says she isn’t focusing on what the SNP is doing in the constituency; she and her team are focusing on the change they want to deliver.

“We’ll continue to fight for every vote, vote by vote, door by door and try and deliver the change that our communities need.”

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