‘How Scottish Labour smashed the election – and can repeat it at Holyrood’

Waiting for Labour’s comeback in Scotland was like waiting on a football team other than Celtic to win the Scottish Premier League. Predictable and boring.

But last week, Scottish politics was realigned. Scotland returned 37 Labour MPs to the House of Commons ending the decade-long SNP dominance at Westminster, with the party picking up just nine seats.

For many Labour activists north of the border, it’s been a long time coming after spending a lengthy period of time reflecting on their position and cycling through often ineffective leaders who struggled to cut through. Can the party keep up the momentum for the Holyrood elections in 2026?

How did Labour win?

It would be naive to suggest the troubles plaguing Labour’s opposing parties did not play a role in returning to dominance at both a Holyrood and Westminster level.

The Tories have been on a downward trajectory in the polls since news of the partygate scandal broke. Liz Truss’s disastrous six weeks in Downing Street caused havoc with the economy and thousands of people are still grappling with the consequences.

In Scotland, the former chief executive of the SNP, Peter Murrell was charged in connection with the embezzlement of funds that had been earmarked for an independence campaign.

A perceived focus on independence over “bread and butter” issues left voters feeling frustrated. Many backed the SNP for their competence in governing Scotland but lost confidence when they failed to deliver this.

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The winning formula for the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election was taken forward into the general election campaign, where campaigning had started long before any election had been called.

Candidates were selected for battleground seats long in advance giving them an opportunity to build a profile and a regular campaign schedule.

National resources were prioritised into battleground seats with nearby non-target seats urged to send their activists to seats where Labour had a better chance of winning, such as in Edinburgh. Campaigners in Edinburgh South (a Labour hold) and Edinburgh West (non-target seat) were directed to Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh and laterally, Edinburgh South West.

Voters in these seats were bombarded with leaflets, mailshots, digital advertising and traditional billboard advertising.

There was a clear and simple message: change.

While maintaining high levels of confidence in public, in private, party activists in Labour/SNP marginals campaigned like they were terrified of losing.

What about the SNP? 

It’s inevitable that a party who has been in government as long as the SNP has should face their day of reckoning. For a party that usurped Labour as Scotland’s natural party of government, it came in the early hours of Friday the 5th of July as ashen-faced now ex-MPs across Scotland sensed that what the polls had been telling them for months was true. 

The trials and tribulations of the SNP have had no end of column inches in Scotland’s newspapers. Divided parties do not win elections – something Labour knows only too well.

Prior to Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation in early 2023, internal disagreements had largely been kept out of the limelight.

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But the subsequent leadership election unleashed decades long divisions between the left and right of the party that could no longer be privately contained.

With the main unionist parties in Scotland showing relative unity in public, the focus turned to the SNP. The general election campaign, led by leader and First Minister John Swinney lacked substance and style.

Voters were bored of the same tired message from the SNP, that they were the only party standing up for Scotland’s interests. In the ten years since they became the dominant force in Westminster, the message had not changed. They had nothing new to tell the people of Scotland.

Can Scottish Labour win back Holyrood?

Scotland is a very different place now than it was back in 2007, when Labour were last in Government. At the next Holyrood election in 2026, there will be young people eligible to vote who have only ever known an SNP governmen

For at least the last decade, politics in Scotland had been viewed through the constitutional lens, but the impact of the Covid pandemic forced a reset and people looked for UK-wide solutions to UK-wide problems. Labour has a real opportunity to form a government in Scotland in 2026, provided they deliver the change promised at a UK level.

Scottish voters comprehensively demonstrated last week that the constitution was no longer the raison d’etre of Scottish politics. The cost of living, the NHS, education and crumbling public services have been at the forefront of voters’ minds when going into the general election.

For Scottish Labour, the constitution had previously been a thorny issue and they struggled to come up with a convincing argument for remaining in the union. With a Labour government at a UK level that has a constructive working relationship with a Scottish Labour government, the power of devolution can truly be harnessed.

They must show that they can use the full extent of the powers that have been delivered to the Scottish Parliament in recent years with bold and ambitious thinking that will propel Scoland forward. Anas Sarwar has already started thinking about his policy platform, with clear indications throughout the general election campaign.

But it will perhaps be the star power of Anas Sarwar compared to the bank manager energy of John Swinney that will win the election.

There is very little doubt that his leadership has been the kick into gear Scottish Labour has needed. Scottish Labour must avoid falling into the old trap of complacency and hubris.

The Labour vote is precarious, not just in Scotland, but across the UK. Questions have been raised about the proportionality of Labour’s vote and the prortionality of last week’s result. There is a lot of work still to be done.

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