‘Welsh Labour is right to unite behind Eluned Morgan, but big headaches loom’

The past seven months have been tough and heartbreaking for Welsh Labour members, despite the euphoria of a recent general election win and Wales returning no Tories to Westminster for the first time since 2001.

This was followed by the disappointment of Vaughan Gething’s resignation after just 78 days in office, due to a lost confidence vote and mass cabinet resignations.

During this period, questions about the future Welsh electoral landscape arose: could an insurgent Reform Party make further inroads into the Welsh Valleys? Could the Welsh nationalist leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, desperate to dent Labour’s dominant position in Wales, manage to do so?

Pull yourselves together

The Labour Senedd Group have recognised the high level of political risk and have decided to unite.

In a sign of the Senedd Labour Group’s commitment to try and unite, Vaughan’s former leadership opponent, Jeremy Miles, chose not to stand again in this leadership election. The Labour Group has, to the relief of party members, made a conscientious effort to come back together.

Members and voters desire an end to Senedd dramas. The likely quick appointment of Eluned Morgan as First Minister and Huw Irranca-Davies as Deputy First Minister will bring early relief, but the hard work of governing and preparing for the next Senedd election begins.

READ MORE: Who is the Health Minister tipped to be next FM of Wales?

Welsh Labour is one of the Western world’s most successful political parties, excelling at both governing and winning elections. The next leader’s success hinges on party unity, promoting Labour’s achievements in Wales, fighting populists, and building alliances to pass their agenda.

While some might argue for a fresh leadership election, unfortunately that time has now passed, and the Labour Party is at pains not to risk handing over any more initiative to pressuring political foes.

Smoke from the Senedd conclave

Emerging as the unity candidates, Eluned Morgan and her Deputy, Huw Irranca Davies  will have a rather full in-tray. Their first task will be one of not only party management but negotiating the safe passage of the Welsh Government’s next budget with opposition parties and agreeing a government programme that can carry the Welsh Labour minority government to its full term in May 2026.

With 30 out of 60 seats in Cardiff Bay, Labour needs at least one abstention from the opposition to pass a budget.

Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has proven himself to be a formidable opponent.His use of Senedd mechanisms to pin down Vaughan Gething over recent months is testament to that fact. According to one opinion poll, he is presently Labour’s chief rival to becoming the largest party in the Senedd.

He and his party of Welsh nationalists have called for an immediate election, a somewhat well disguised political sleight of hand. While the Plaid leader may call for an election to “end the chaos”, as he puts it, it may in fact enable him to bat away Labour overtures to pass a budget and new laws on apparent principle.

For, if his position is there should be immediate elections, then why would he reenter into a cooperation agreement with the new Labour First Minister when he has made his position so clear?

Liberal tradition

The path to passing a budget is still not precisely clear. There is of course the sole Lib Dem MS, Jane Dodds, who could likely extract concessions in exchange for her one vote. Given there is a high enough possibility her party could work with Labour under the new PR voting system in 2026, it potentially suits both parties to create some sort of deal.

At the very least, Dodds could be persuaded to abstain in the next budget vote and the Llywydd (Speaker) by convention, would then vote for the status quo in the event of a tie.

Cathy Owens, a former Special Adviser to the First Minister and founder of Welsh Public Affairs firm Deryn, has said of the Senedd maths: “In order to pass legislation, a budget, and a stable government, you need to work very differently than if you have a majority, as is often seen in Westminster.

Little credit is given to First Ministers of the last 25 years for working in this way. It became normalised and not valued as highly as it should be. Welsh politics became more consensual, and it was critiqued for being boring. But it has kept Labour as the largest elected party in power, whilst also delivering the priorities of others. Voters like seeing parties work together.”

One voter in Cardiff remarked to me that since the Welsh Assembly was formed, Wales has always been better than Westminster, when it comes to higher standards in public life. Voters will expect to see a return to high standards and, stability.

This requires the 30-strong Labour Group to return to the iron rod discipline that has kept them in power since devolution began 25 years ago.  A point as to why it is now so important to have a leader that can achieve group cohesion and negotiate with the opposition, all thanks to the parliamentary arithmetic which, by design, makes negotiation with other parties inevitable.

Frustrated voters and Reform insurgency

It’s not just about passing budgets. Former minister Lee Waters MS recently called for more internal debate instead of a quick unifying leadership process, which would be fine if Labour were in opposition.

The fact that the party is in power, and having just had a leadership election a few months ago, enhances the need for a quick leadership election. The sizeable increase in the Reform Party vote in the South Wales Valleys in the general election, as well as Waters’ own Llanelli seat, ought to serve as warning of the frustration some voters feel toward the Welsh Government. The speed with which the government needs to tackle their frustrations.

This did not start with Vaughan Gething’s election as leader. Much voter frustration and anger came about because of the rollout of the new national 20mph limit and cancellation of multiple road building projects in many of Wales’ communities.

Polling woes

Rhondda and Ogmore Labour MP, Chris Bryant, described elements of the 20mph speed limit rollout as “bonkers” on BBC Question Time. The limit is hugely unpopular in Wales. This is the moment when Welsh Labour’s polling took a real hit, and a policy Waters was personally responsible for as Deputy Climate Change Minister. Something many of his cabinet colleagues, including Vaughan, took collective responsibility for.

Labour’s present polling woes stem also from government decisions, not just controversies surrounding the former First Minister. Highly controversial policies like the new speed limit rollout can no longer be afforded.

Added to this comes 14 years of consecutive Conservative budget squeezes, the Tories then laid blame for ailing public service issues at the door of the Welsh government. Far too many government resources now go on simply running public services instead of investing in them. The Welsh Government even took the difficult decision last year to cut other areas except for struggling health and social care, such is the outdated nature of Whitehall’s Welsh funding arrangements.

Winning the argument

 We can have arguments about ideas of course, and we absolutely should. Principally, however, Welsh Labour needs to be united in calling for the redress of how Wales is funded, and that the country be given multiyear funding plans, instead of the current annual allocations. Lessons learnt from devolution so far prove it is difficult to plan much further ahead without even knowing what future funding arrangements will be.

Renewal in office, as Waters argues for, can only be achieved if a united front exists both behind closed doors and in public. Agreement ironed out within the Labour Group achieves policy change, and delivery, will need to once again be achieved by reverting to this fine tradition.

Revamped railways, capping social care fees, lower cost tuition fees and free prescriptions are but a few of the great achievements Labour can point to of their time in office.

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Should Labour wish to get its agenda through and effect change then it will require experience and political deftness to navigate. If the aim is to govern, win and indeed be radical in government, the first ingredient is to put aside differences and come together. As we have seen, without that, little else can occur.

The general election on the 4th of July was yet more proof, as if we needed it, than ever united parties win elections, while divided ones lose them. With broad consensus on the need for a new leader and united front, the choice has now been made. Now the time has come to deliver.

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