More than half a dozen cabinet ministers could lose seats in fresh election, new MRP poll suggests

More than half a dozen members of Keir Starmer’s cabinet would be at risk of losing their seats if a general election were held today, a new MRP poll has suggested.

The analysis from think tank More in Common projected that Labour would see its landslide majority slashed if voters cast their ballots now, winning just 228 seats – down from 412 in July.

More in Common’s data has Labour mostly bleeding support towards right wing parties, losing 87 seats to the Conservatives and 67 to Reform UK.

Several cabinet ministers would see their seats fall, with the MRP showing Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Bridget Phillipson, Ed Miliband and Jonathan Reynolds all losing their constituencies to Reform.

Lisa Nandy would narrowly hold her seat against Reform by just one point. The data also has Health Secretary Wes Streeting losing his seat of Ilford North to an independent.

Labour’s revival in Scotland would be partially reversed, with the MRP showing the party lose 26 seats to the SNP.

READ MORE: Revealed: Labour’s most marginal seats against Reform UK

More in Common UK’s executive director Luke Tryl said: “There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.”

But while the survey, carried out for The Sunday Times, showed Labour’s seat tally sharply dropping, the party would still emerge as the largest in a hung parliament – despite marginally losing the popular vote to the Conservatives.

The data shows no party winning more than 30% of the popular vote, with the Tories on 26%, Labour on 25%, Reform on 21% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%. Labour won 33.7% of the vote in 2024.

Labour would narrowly beat the Conservatives on seat count, winning 228 seats to the Tories’ 222 – putting both of the major parties far short of the 326 needed for a majority.

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The party’s 2024 recovery in the Red Wall would melt away, with Reform surging across many seats in the north, especially in South Yorkshire and Tyneside.

The poll results also hinted at a growing fragmentation of the vote, with the winning party getting under a third of the vote in 271 seats.

Tryl added: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election. Instead, however, it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.

“The First Past the Post system is struggling to deal with that degree of fragmentation, which is why our model shows so many seats on a three-way knife edge, and many being won on exceptionally small shares of the vote.”

The next general election is not due until 2029.

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