‘Trump’s inauguration heralds profound change for America and the world’

Donald Trump will today be sworn in as America’s 47^th President inside the same Capitol Building violently stormed by his supporters just four years ago seeking to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election.

It marks a historic moment for America and for the world, and an extraordinary political and personal comeback for a man whose MAGA-controlled Republican Party not only occupies the White House in November but now has majorities in both the House of Representatives and Senate too.

With an in-built conservative majority in the Supreme Court created in Trump’s first Presidential term, the scene is set for the most sweeping changes to the way the US is governed for decades.

So, how did we get here, what can we expect from Trump 2.0 and what are the implications for the UK, the Labour government and the wider centre-left across the developed world.

The worst election defeat since 1988

The final margin of the popular vote in November’s Presidential election was modest – Trump won 49.8% compared to Kamala Harris’s 48.3% – but the result was a disaster for the Democrats.

Harris failed to win any of seven of the swing states Joe Biden secured in 2020 and secured the worst electoral college result of any Democrat Presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis was trounced by George Bush Senior in 1988.

Black, Latino and working-class Americans all moved towards Trump and, despite the prospect of a first female President and Harris’s focus on abortion rights, the former Californian state prosecutor gained a lower proportion of women voters than Joe Biden did four years earlier.

The Democrat failure is laid bare in a stark analysis undertaken by my colleagues at the centre-left US-think tank Third Way who polled voters in swing states in the days after the election.

It showed that not only did Trump command big leads on the issues people most cared about, particularly on the cost of living and the border crisis, but also better connected with the values and identities of core voter groups.

READ MORE: ‘Deepening ties with EU best way for UK to deal with Trump tariff fears’

The party’s post-mortem into its defeat is ongoing. Biden should have gone earlier. Incumbency was too much of a drag. Harris was too timid in detaching herself from her predecessor. Her campaign focused on the wrong issues. Its focus on mainstream media and campaigning was outdated and ineffective.

All these claims have validity, and many more too. But there are deeper questions from this election – and ones relevant to the Labour Party too – in the context of rising public demand for change and increasing support for the populist right. How do mainstream parties of the centre-left, for example, reconnect to the values and interests of core voters, and how do they defend democratic norms and institutions of a system that many voters believe has failed them?

Certainly, the Democrats were seen as the party of the status quo at a time when a large majority of voters believed that the country was going in the wrong direction. Perhaps it’s not so surprising then that one stand-out finding of the Third Way research was that more voters saw Harris as extreme than Trump.

Trump 2.0 will be better prepared than the first

The first Trump Presidency was marked by confusion, missteps and chaos. The second will be better prepared, focused and confident fuelled by democratic validation, political vengeance and a strong belief that this moment represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to disrupt and challenge fundamental norms, rules and conventions at home and abroad.

It will hit the ground running with a volley of executive orders issued later today by the new Commander-in-Chief on immigration, trade and on minority rights. Trump’s border czar has promised “shock and awe” to kickstart the policy to deport undocumented migrants living in the US.

The US federal government is going to be hacked back and brought under greater control of the White House. Law enforcement agencies will be deployed to pursue political opponents and turn a blind eye to unlawful activities that might be helpful to Trump.

For more from LabourList, follow us on  Bluesky, Threads, X, Facebook,  Instagram or WhatsApp.

American’s top business executives are falling into line in record numbers too, eager to show their support for Trump’s commitment to tax cuts and deregulation – or fearing retribution for failing to do so. More than $200m has been donated to Trump’s inauguration fund, more than three times the amount Biden raised four years ago.

In this stampede, it is Big Tech that has ensured it is at the front of the pack and – as we have seen in recent weeks as Elon Musk has used his ownership of X to successfully meddle in the internal affairs of the UK and Germany – this alliance of political and information power promises to unleash far-reaching changes to the world we live in and to how our democracies function.

Mark Zuckerberg was on to something when, in his hostage video announcing Meta’s capitulation to Trumpworld, he described the US election as a “cultural tipping point” – and there are many (Musk included) who see its outcome that heralds counter-revolutionary change well beyond the borders of the US.

An America determined to dismantle the status quo

This desire to cause disruption, particularly in those countries and international institutions that are seen to present the same values, attitudes and mindset that Trump fought and won against in the US, is causing havoc internationally

The post-war international rules-based order has always been reliant on American power. But for as long as the US political establishment believed such arrangements served their country’s long-term security and prosperity the system worked, if imperfectly, providing protection and peace to Europe and large parts of the world.

Today, we have a US President that strongly believes that this system has acted only to weaken and undermine American interests, and appears determined to dismantle it. The consequences of doing so are far-reaching and profound.

SIGN UP: Get the best daily roundup and analysis of Labour news and comment in our newsletter

Long-time allies are viewed with suspicion and are threatened with tariffs. Their territorial boundaries are questioned and the defence of Ukraine, defending democracy and freedom in Europe from imperialist aggression, will be compromised.

It’s little wonder then that governments like Keir Starmer’s are expending considerable time and energy working out how best to engage a Trump Presidency.

Rightly, Starmer is working hard to build a close and productive relationship with the new President, whatever the noise and criticism. The UK’s economic and security interests demand that he does so but the pressure from many at home and overseas will, at times, be intense – and there will be areas of policy that the UK will necessarily be at odds with a Trump White House.

Mandelson appointment a clever move

His appointment of Peter Mandelson as the next British ambassador in the US was a clever move, although not without risk.

The former Labour cabinet minister and EU trade commissioner understands power like few others and his article for the Fox News website last week praising Trump and his victory was a clear demonstration of the Government’s approach.

There will certainly be opportunities, not least because policy will be up for grabs.

This Trump administration is packed with ideological tensions. There’s the rift between the immigration hardliners and the tech bros who want high-skilled workers from overseas, between the fiscal conservatives and those who want to rapidly increase military spending, between Robert F Kennedy’s plans to impose EU-style safety regulations on food in the US and those who want to give industry a free hand.

Building relationships at all levels with the administration will bring potential dividends for Britain on trade and security, and the Government is right to position itself to benefit where it can.

But Trump’s victory will have a longer-lasting and deeper impact on the very nature of the way our democratic politics functions. There are fewer potential dividends from this.

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. 
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. 
• DONATE: If you value our work, please donate to become one of our supporters here and help sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
• ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].