‘Love it or loathe it, aid cuts and defence cash play well on the doorstep’

Honestly, I wish it weren’t so, but it is.

Keir Starmer’s rabbit out of the hat on defence spending and international aid will almost certainly prove incredibly popular with voters, especially those who will be pivotal if Labour is to win the next election.

Don’t believe me? Best get out and meet ordinary Brits. Public First carries out hundreds and hundreds of qualitative research interviews and focus groups every month and the references to international aid come thick and fast, often without prompting.

Take this, from one male voter in a northern market town, last month: “It’s time to stop the foreign aid. I’m all for it [foreign aid], if the country’s doing well and we’ve got lots of money in the Treasury. If there’s a real disaster anywhere, we should send the troops, send the help.

“But charity begins at home – that’s what did your mum used to tell you when you were small, wasn’t it? And at the moment they’re taking the heating allowance off the poor pensioners.”

Understanding voters’ priorities

The polls tell us a similar story. Spending on defence is not actually hugely popular, especially compared to health or education, but put up against spending taxpayers’ money on aid,  and it is on a different level. For context, recent PF polling demonstrates the points exactly.

Voters would actually rather the government spent money on increasing train-driver pay, then spend it on aid. This demonstrates an almost unthinkable level of unpopularity, it is very bottom of the pile.

This, then, is the context in which Starmer’s announcement will have landed. There is an audience – including, especially, those who are most tempted to switch their vote to Reform – who will be incredibly enthusiastic about it.

READ MORE: Defence boost derails aid boost pledged in manifesto as Dodds dealt a blow

Correspondingly, there can be no doubt that Farage and co will see this announcement as a very real threat in the polls. Voters are also likely to be surprised by the headlines they will have heard and seen yesterday afternoon.

Time after time in focus groups you will hear people attack the prime minister as out of touch and elitist. Voters honestly believe that he has absolutely no understanding of their views, their interests and their needs.

The words might stick in the mouths of Labour activists and supporters, but when you hear the critique of Starmer on the doorstep, it is worth considering using this example to counter it.

‘There is one heath warning’

No doubt, Morgan McSweeny would say the same – I cannot think of a message that fits better into his strategy of delivering policy and talking politics in a way that ordinary people will understand.

There is one heath warning, however. There is another problem with the Starmer Brand that this announcement will struggle to overcome: that he is “slippery” and that “he lied to us”.

These are two accusations that you hear time and again. They only way to counter this will be to actually make the defence spending increases tangible in the places that matter most.

READ MORE: ‘Reform Revealed’: Labour targets Farage in Runcorn with salvo of Facebook ads

Tanks must roll out of the factories in a way that impacts the man and woman on the street.

Ordinary people must be able to feel the economic and employment benefits that this surge in defence spending ought to bring.

This caveat to one side, yesterday was an excellent day if you want to see Labour returned to government in 2029.

It might leave a bad taste for many supporters, but it was probably the best day of popular politics the Keir Starmer administration has mustered up since July 2024.