Joani Reid MP: ‘Here’s why Scottish Labour shouldn’t despair at the polls’

Labour has been in power for just short of eight months. It has been a tough time – we had far-right-inspired riots in the early weeks, we are having to deal with public services that were left to slowly rot by the Tories, and now we have a deepening crisis in Ukraine that shows just how important it is to rebuild our defences and strengthen our armed forces.

No government since the war has had a tougher start, and many of the decisions taken have been unpopular – there’s no point in denying that. But that doesn’t make them wrong. Scottish opinion polls since last July’s election have shown a decline in Labour’s share without a corresponding surge in support for the SNP.

It’s clear that for many voters, Labour still needs to prove itself as worthy of taking office after the next elections to the Scottish Parliament in 2026.

There is no great enthusiasm for continuing 18 years of SNP rule, but nor is there yet a decisive shift towards Scottish Labour. These are my thoughts ahead of this weekend’s Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow. But they aren’t words of despair or despondency.

The choice facing voters next year

When I was first selected as Scottish Labour’s candidate for East Kilbride and Strathaven, few would have given me much chance of winning. Back then, the focus was on whether Keir Starmer could win enough seats in England and Wales to get over the line without needing Scotland.

That analysis was definitively proved wrong on election day because voters in Scotland wanted change just as much as the rest of the UK and backed the one party able to make it happen – Labour.

I think we face a similar position now as we look towards the Scottish Parliament elections in 2026.

READ MORE: Delegates at Scottish Labour conference set to debate motions on winter fuel, Cass review, and others

The opinion polls aren’t great, but they feel more like a reaction to Labour’s first eight months in government rather than a true reflection of the final choice voters will make when deciding who should govern Scotland.

As we get closer to the election itself, Scottish Labour has an opportunity to start shifting that perspective. But perhaps even more importantly, the fundamentals will also evolve.

‘Delivering change requires new leadership’

The tough decisions taken – some of them unpopular – mean that from April, the Scottish Government’s budget will rise by £3.6 billion. That’s over £700 per person in Scotland – more than enough to start making a serious difference to health, schools, and crime prevention.

The big question now is: now that they can no longer claim they don’t have the money, can the SNP deliver the reform needed to make that money count? I’m not convinced they can.

We will likely see some improvements because of the sheer scale of the additional money, but I don’t believe we will get the real reform Scotland needs.

Delivering that change will require new leadership and a new direction for Scotland. And only Scottish Labour can guarantee that happens.